The TIAA-CREF Institute's fifth annual Paul A. Samuelson Award for Outstanding Scholarly Writing on Lifelong Financial Security has been given to NBER Faculty Research Associate Nicholas Barberis of the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business for a study cautioning investors that the long-term performance of the stock market and the expected returns from equities are more uncertain than is generally believed. His paper, "Investing for the Long Run When Returns Are Predictable," was published in the Journal of Finance in February 2000.

The Samuelson Award is determined by an independent panel of judges and is administered by the TIAA-CREF Institute, the research and educational arm of TIAA-CREF. The Institute's fields of interest include pensions and retirement; corporate governance; investment products and strategy; higher education financing and trends; health, life, and long-term care insurance; and financial literacy. The award was named after Nobel Prize winner Paul Samuelson in honor of his achievements in the field of economics, as well as for his service as a CREF trustee from 1974-85. It carries a $20,000 prize.

The judges also awarded Certificates of Excellence to the authors of two books: NBER Research Associates Price V. Fishback and Shawn E. Kantor, University of Arizona, for A Prelude to the Welfare State: The Origins of Workers' Compensation, published by the University of Chicago Press; and NBER Research Associate John B. Shoven, Stanford University, and coauthor Sylvester J. Schieber, Watson Wyatt Worldwide, for The Real Deal: The History and Future of Social Security, published by the Yale University Press. Each of these authors received a $1,000 prize.

The awards were presented by John H. Biggs, TIAA-CREF chairman, president, and CEO, at a January 5, 2001, reception held at the Allied Social Science Association's annual meeting in New Orleans.