The 27th NBER-TCER-CEPR Conference
Advancing the Science of Science Funding Workshop
East Asian Seminar on Economics
Incentives and Limitations of Employment Policies on Retirement Transitions
International Seminar on Macroeconomics
Japan Project
Machine Learning in Health Care
Workshop on Aging and Health

An NBER conference on Machine Learning in Health Care took place June 4 in Cambridge. Research Associates David M. Cutler and Sendhil Mullainathan, both of Harvard University, and Ziad Obermeyer of Harvard Medical School organized the meeting. The conference was partially funded by a grant from the National Institute on Aging. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Sendhil Mullainathan and Ziad Obermeyer, "Are We Over-Testing? Using Machine Learning to Understand Doctors' Decisions"

Susan Athey, Stanford University and NBER, "The Impact of Machine Learning on Economics" (Chapter in the forthcoming NBER book The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda, Ajay K. Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors, from the University of Chicago Press)

David C. Chan Jr, Stanford University and NBER, and Jonathan Gruber, MIT and NBER, "Triage Judgments in the Emergency Department"

Justine S. Hastings, Brown University and NBER, and Mark Howison, Sarah E. Inman, and Miraj G. Shah, Brown University, "Using Big Data and Data Science to Generate Solutions to the Opioid Crisis"

Jonathan Gruber; Benjamin R. Handel and Jonathan T. Kolstad, University of California, Berkeley and NBER; and Samuel Kina, Picwell Inc., "Managing Intelligence: Skilled Experts and AI in Markets for Complex Products"

Rahul Ladhania and Amelia Haviland, Carnegie Mellon University; Neeraj Sood, University of Southern California and NBER; and Ateev Mehrotra, Harvard Medical School, "Medication Adherence and Cost Exposure: A Story in Heterogeneity"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/MLs18/summary.html

A workshop on Aging and Health cosponsored by the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy and the NBER took place June 7–8 in Munich, Germany. Research Associate Axel H. Börsch-Supan of the Max Planck Institute, Fabrizio Mazzonna of Università della Svizzera Italiana, and Research Associate Jonathan S. Skinner of Dartmouth College organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Amitabh Chandra, Harvard University and NBER, and Douglas O. Staiger, Dartmouth College and NBER, "Identifying Prejudice in Healthcare by Race, Gender, and Age"

Axel H. Börsch-Supan; Tabea Bucher-Koenen, Max Planck Institute; and Felizia Hanemann, Technical University of Munich, "Does Disability Insurance Improve Health and Well-being?"

Coen W.A. van de Kraats, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute; Titus J. Galama, University of Southern California; and Maarten Lindeboom, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, "Light at the End of the Tunnel — Unemployment and Mental Health after Age 50"

Liran Einav, Stanford University and NBER; Amy Finkelstein, MIT and NBER; Sendhil Mullainathan, Harvard University and NBER; and Ziad Obermeyer, Harvard Medical School, "Does High Healthcare Spending at End of Life Imply Waste? Predictive Modeling Suggests Not Necessarily"

Mary K. Hamman and John M. Nunley, University of Wisconsin-LaCrosse; Daniela E. Hochfellner, New York University; and Christopher J. Ruhm, University of Virginia and NBER, "Peer Effects and Retirement Decisions: Evidence from Pension Reform in Germany"

Naoki Aizawa, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Soojin Kim, Purdue University; and Serena Rhee, University of Hawaii, Manoa, "Labor Market Screening and Social Insurance Program Design for the Disabled"

Andreas Haller and Josef Zweimueller, University of Zurich, and Stefan Staubli, University of Calgary and NBER, "Tightening Disability Screening or Reducing Disability Benefits? Evidence and Welfare Implications"

Peter Hudomiet and Susann Rohwedder, RAND Corporation, and Michael D. Hurd, RAND Corporation and NBER, "Using Subjective Conditional Probabilities to Find the Causal Effects of Health, Income, Wealth, and Longevity on Retirement"

Gopi Shah Goda, Stanford University and NBER; Matthew Levy, London School of Economics; Colleen Flaherty Manchester and Aaron Sojourner, University of Minnesota; and Joshua Tasoff, Claremont Graduate University, "Mechanisms behind Retirement Saving Behavior: Evidence from Administrative and Survey Data"

Nicholas W. Papageorge, Johns Hopkins University and NBER; Kevin Thom, New York University; and Daniel Barth, University of Southern California, "Genetic Endowments and Wealth Inequality" (NBER Working Paper No. 24642)

Maarten Lindeboom, "Pension Reform: Disentangling Retirement and Savings Responses"

Ethan Lieber, University of Notre Dame, and Lee Lockwood, University of Virginia and NBER, "Targeting with In-Kind Transfers: Evidence from Medicaid Home Care" (NBER Working Paper No. 24267)

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/AHs18/summary.html

The NBER, the Tokyo Center for Economic Research, the Korea Development Institute, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the Peking University China Center for Economic Research, the National University of Singapore, the Australian National University, and the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (Taipei) jointly sponsored the NBER's 29th Annual East Asian Seminar on Economics. The conference, which focused on political economy, was organized by Research Associates Takatoshi Ito of Columbia University and Andrew K. Rose of the University of California, Berkeley. It took place in Seoul, South Korea, June 21–22. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Abhijit Banerjee, MIT and NBER; Nils Enevoldsen, MIT; Rohini Pande, Harvard University and NBER; and Michael Walton, Harvard University, "Information as an Incentive: Experimental Evidence from Delhi"

Dongsoo Kang and Changwoo Nam, Korea Development Institute, "Conflict of Interests between Government and Creditors in Corporate Restructuring: Case of Korea"

Ippei Fujiwara, Keio University, and Shunsuke Hori, University of Tokyo, "Aging and Deflation"

Kenichi Ueda, University of Tokyo, "Tail Risk Dumping"

Zhenyu Cui, Stevens Institute of Technology, and Nobuo Akai, Osaka University, "Corruption, Political Stability and Efficiency of Government Expenditure on Health Care — Evidence from Asian Countries"

Weijia Li, University of California, Berkeley; Gerard Roland, University of California, Berkeley, CEPR and NBER; and Yang Xie, University of California, Riverside, "Crony Capitalism, the Party-State, and Political Boundaries of Corruption"

Henry S. Farber and Ilyana Kuziemko, Princeton University and NBER; Daniel Herbst, Princeton University; and Suresh Naidu, Columbia University and NBER, "Unions and Inequality Over the Twentieth Century: New Evidence from Survey Data" (NBER Working Paper No. 24587)

Sunjoo Hwang, Hwa Ryung Lee, and Keeyoung Rhee, Korea Development Institute, "Regulatory Revolving Door in the Financial Industry: Evidence from South Korea"

Ying Bai, Chinese University of Hong Kong, and Ruixue Jia, University of California, San Diego, "The Oriental City: Political Hierarchy and Regional Development in China, AD 1000–2000"

Meng-Chun Liu and Chia-Hsuan Wu, Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, "Taiwan's Import Protection after Acceding to the WTO"

Chen Lin, Chinese University of Hong Kong; Randall Morck, University of Alberta, Edmonton; Bernard Yeung, National University of Singapore; and Xiaofeng Zhao, Lingnan University, "Anti-Corruption Reforms and Shareholder Valuations: Event Study Evidence from China"

Xiangyu Shi, Yale University; Tianyang Xi, Peking University; Xiaobo Zhang, Peking University and IFPRI; and Yifan Zhang, Chinese University of Hong Kong, "‘Moving Umbrella': Bureaucratic Transfers, Collusion, and Rent-Seeking in China"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/EASE18/summary.html

The NBER's 41st International Seminar on Macroeconomics, hosted by the Central Bank of Ireland, took place in Dublin, Ireland, June 29–30. Research Associates Jordi Galí of CREI and Kenneth D. West of the University of Wisconsin, Madison organized the conference. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Jing Cynthia Wu, University of Notre Dame and NBER, and Ji Zhang, Tsinghua University, "Global Effective Lower Bound and Unconventional Monetary Policy" (NBER Working Paper No. 24714)

Anna Cieslak, Duke University, and Andreas Schrimpf, Bank for International Settlements, "Non-Monetary News in Central Bank Communication"

Alexander Bick, Arizona State University; Bettina Brueggemann, McMaster University; and Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln and Hannah Paule-Paludkiewicz, Goethe University Frankfurt, "Long-Term Changes in Married Couples' Labor Supply and Taxes: Evidence from the U.S. and Europe Since the 1980s"

Björn Richter and Moritz Schularick, University of Bonn, and Ilhyock Shim, Bank for International Settlements, "The Costs of Macroprudential Policy"

Ester Faia, Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Sebastien Laffitte, ENS Paris-Saclay; and Gianmarco Ottaviano, Bocconi University and London School of Economics, "Foreign Expansion, Competition, and Bank Risk"

Marco Del Negro, Domenico Giannone, and Andrea Tambalotti, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Marc Giannoni, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, "Global Trends in Interest Rates"

Luigi Bocola, Northwestern University and NBER; Alessandro Dovis, University of Pennsylvania and NBER; and Gideon Bornstein, Northwestern University, "Quantitative Sovereign Default Models and the European Debt Crisis"

Atsushi Inoue, Vanderbilt University, and Barbara Rossi, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/ISOM18/summary.html

A workshop on Advancing the Science of Science Funding took place July 19–20 in Cambridge, supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Research Associate Paula Stephan of Georgia State University and Reinhilde Veugelers of the Katholieke Universiteit Leuven organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Henry Sauermann, European School of Management and Technology and NBER; Chiara Franzoni, Politecnico di Milano; and Kourosh Shafi, University of Florida, "Crowdfunding Scientific Research" (NBER Working Paper No. 24402)

Charles Ayoubi and Fabiana Visentin, EPFL, and Michele Pezzoni, Université Nice, "The Important Thing Is Not to Win, It Is to Take Part: What if Scientists Benefit from Participating in Research Grant Competitions?"

Misha Teplitskiy, Harvard University; Eva C. Guinan, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; and Karim Lakhani, Harvard University and NBER, "Social Influence in Science Funding Evaluation Panels: Field Experimental Evidence from Biomedicine"

Alfredo Di Tillio and Marco Ottaviani, Bocconi University, and Peter Norman Sørensen, University of Copenhagen, "Strategic Sample Selection"

Marc J. Lerchenmueller, Yale University, "Does More Money Lead to More Innovation? Evidence from the Life Sciences"

Jacques Mairesse, CREST-ENSAE and NBER; Michele Pezzoni; Paula Stephan; and Julia Lane, New York University, "Examining the Returns to Investment in Science: A case Study"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/SFIs18/summary.html

The 27th NBER-TCER-CEPR Conference, "Globalization and Welfare Impacts of International Trade," took place in Tokyo July 27. This meeting was sponsored jointly by the Centre for Economic Policy Research in London, the NBER, the Tokyo Center for Economic Research, the Center for Advanced Research in Finance, and the Center for International Re-search on the Japanese Economy. Shin-ichi Fukuda of Tokyo University, Takeo Hoshi of Stanford University and NBER, and Fukunari Kimura of Keio University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Richard Baldwin, Graduate Institute, Geneva and NBER, and Toshihiro Okubo, Keio University, "GVC Jour-neys When National and Territorial Comparative Advantage Differ"

Ayako Obashi, Aoyama Gakuin University, "Trade Agreement with Cross-Border Unbundling"

Takeo Hoshi, and Kozo Kiyota, Keio University, "Potentials for Inward Foreign Direct Investment in Japan"

Keith Head, University of British Columbia, and Thierry Mayer, Sciences-Po, "Misfits in the Car Industry: Off-shore Assembly Decisions at the Variety Level"

Gabriel Felbermayr and Marina Steininger, Ifo Center for International Economics; Fukunari Kimura and Toshihiro Okubo, "Quantifying the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement"

Katheryn Russ and Deborah Swenson, University of California, Davis and NBER, and Kelly Stangl, University of California, Davis, "Trade Diversion and Trade Deficits under the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement"

Akira Sasahara, University of Idaho, "Explaining the Employment Effect of Exports: Value-Added Content Matters"

Olena Ivus, Queen's University, and Walter Park, American University, "Patent Reforms and Exporter Behavior: Firm-Level Evidence from Developing Countries"

Meredith Crowley, University of Cambridge, and Ning Meng and Huasheng Song, Zhejiang University, "Policy Shocks and Stock Market Returns: Evidence from Chinese Solar Panels"

Heiwai Tang, Johns Hopkins University, and Hiroyuki Kasahara, University of British Columbia, "Excessive Entry and Exit in Export Markets"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/TRIO18/summary.html

The NBER held a meeting on the Japanese economy in Tokyo July 30. The seminar was organized by Shiro Armstrong of the Australian National University; Research Associates Charles Horioka of the Asian Growth Research Institute (Kitakyu-shu), Takeo Hoshi of Stanford University, and David Weinstein of Columbia University; and Tsutomu Watanabe of the University of Tokyo. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Shuhei Kitamura, Osaka University, "Land Ownership and Development: Evidence from Postwar Japan"

Sergi Basco, Universitat Autònoma Barcelona, and John P. Tang, Australian National University, "The Samurai Bond: Credit Supply and Economic Growth in Pre-War Japan"

Cynthia Balloch, Columbia University, "Inflows and Spillovers: Tracing the Impact of Bond Market Liberalization"

Martín Uribe, Columbia University and NBER, "The Neo-Fisher Effect in the United States and Japan" (NBER Working Paper No. 23977)

Yuhei Miyauchi, MIT, "Matching and Agglomeration: Theory and Evidence from Japanese Firm-to-Firm Trade"

Toshiaki Iizuka, University of Tokyo, and Hitoshi Shigeoka, Simon Fraser University and NBER, "Patient Cost-sharing and Health Care Utilization among Children"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/conferences/2018/JPMs18/summary.html

An NBER conference on Incentives and Limitations of Employment Policies on Retirement Transitions, supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, took place August 10–11 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Research Associates Robert L. Clark of North Carolina State University and Joseph P. Newhouse of Harvard University organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Maria D. Fitzpatrick, Cornell University and NBER, "Pension Reform and Return to Work Policies"

Leslie E. Papke, Michigan State University, "Retirement Options and Outcomes for Public Employees"

John Hsu, Partners Healthcare; Samuel H. Zuvekas, Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality; and Joseph P. Newhouse and Lindsay Overhage, Harvard University, "Impact of Fiscal Shocks on Retiree Health Plans and Effect on Work and Retirement Decisions"

Norma Coe, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "Impact of Health Plan Reforms in Washington on Retirement Decisions"

Vanya Horneff and Raimond Maurer, Goethe University Frankfurt, and Olivia S. Mitchell, University of Pennsylvania and NBER, "How Will Persistent Low Expected Returns Shape Household Behavior?"

Joseph F. Quinn and Kevin Cahill, Boston College, and Michael Giandrea, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Transitions from Career Employment among Public- and Private-Sector Workers"

Melinda S. Morrill, North Carolina State University and NBER, and John Westall, North Carolina State University, "The Role of Social Security in Retirement Timing: Evidence from a National Sample of Teachers"

Robert L. Clark; Robert G. Hammond, North Carolina State University; and David Vanderweide, North Carolina General Assembly, "Navigating Complex Financial Decisions at Retirement: Evidence from Annuity Choices in Public Sector Pensions"

Gila Bronshtein, Stanford University; Jason Scott, Financial Engines; John B. Shoven, Stanford University and NBER; and Sita Slavov, George Mason University and NBER, "The Power of Working Longer" (NBER Working Paper No. 24226)

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/confer/2018/EPRTs18/summary.html