33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics
Capital Flows, Currency Wars, and Monetary Policy
Economics of Culture and Institutions
Innovation Policy and the Economy
New Developments in Long-Term Asset Management
The Role of Immigrants and Foreign Students in Science, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship
Trade and Agriculture
Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Symposium

A conference on Capital Flows, Currency Wars, and Monetary Policy took place in Cambridge on April 5–6. Research Associates Emmanuel Farhi of Harvard University and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan of the University of Maryland organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Ricardo J. Caballero and Alp Simsek, MIT and NBER, "A Model of Fickle Capital Flows and Retrenchment" (NBER Working Paper No. 22751)

Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, Bank of England; and Hélène Rey, London Business School and NBER, "U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle" (NBER Working Paper No. 21722)

Manuel Amador, University of Minnesota and NBER; Javier Bianchi, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and NBER; Luigi Bocola, Northwestern University and NBER; and Fabrizio Perri, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, "Foreign Reserve Management"

Ozge Akinci, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and Albert Queralto Olive, Federal Reserve Board, "Balance Sheets, Exchange Rates, and International Monetary Spillovers"

Tarek Alexander Hassan, Boston University and NBER; Thomas Mertens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; and Tony Zhang, University of Chicago, "Currency Manipulation" (NBER Working Paper No. 22790)

Emine Boz, International Monetary Fund; Gita Gopinath, Harvard University and NBER; and Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, Princeton University, "Global Trade and the Dollar" (NBER Working Paper No. 23988)

Olivier Jeanne, Johns Hopkins University and NBER, "Currency Wars, Trade Wars and Global Demand"

Toni Ahnert and Christian Friedrich, Bank of Canada; Kristin Forbes, MIT and NBER; and Dennis Reinhardt, Bank of England, "Macroprudential FX Regulations: Shifting the Snowbanks of FX Vulnerability"

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Pauline Wibaux, Paris School of Economics, and Matthieu Bussière, Banque de France, "Trade and Currency Weapons"

Stefan Avdjiev and Catherine Koch, Bank for International Settlements, and Hyun Song Shin, Bank for International Settlements and NBER, "Exchange Rates and the Transmission of Global Liquidity"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/confer/2018/CWs18/summary.html

The NBER's 33rd Annual Conference on Macroeconomics took place in Cambridge on April 12–13. Research Associates Martin S. Eichenbaum of Northwestern University and Jonathan A. Parker of MIT organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Michael Woodford, Columbia University and NBER, "Monetary Policy Analysis when Planning Horizons are Finite" (NBER Working Paper No. 24692)

Loukas Karabarbounis, University of Minnesota and NBER, and Brent Neiman, University of Chicago and NBER, "Accounting for Factorless Income" (NBER Working Paper No. 24404)

Omar Barbiero, Harvard University; Emmanuel Farhi and Gita Gopinath, Harvard University and NBER; and Oleg Itskhoki, Princeton University and NBER, "The Economics of Border Adjustment Taxes" (NBER Working Paper No. 24702)

Julian Kozlowski, New York University, and Laura Veldkamp and Venky Venkateswaran, New York University and NBER, "The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low" (NBER Working Paper No. 24362)

Andrew Atkeson, Andrea L. Eisfeldt, and Pierre-Olivier Weill, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER; and Adrien D'Avernas, Stockholm School of Economics, "The Financial Soundness of U.S. Banks"

Kerwin Kofi Charles and Erik Hurst, University of Chicago and NBER; and Mariel Schwartz, University of Chicago, "The Transformation of Manufacturing and the Decline in U.S. Employment" (NBER Working Paper No. 24468)

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/confer/2018/Macro18/summary.html

The 2018 Innovation Policy and the Economy Conference took place on April 17 in Washington, DC. Research Associates Josh Lerner of Harvard University and Scott Stern of MIT organized the meeting, which was sponsored by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Nicholas Bagley, University of Michigan; Amitabh Chandra, Harvard University and NBER; Craig Garthwaite, Northwestern University and NBER; and Ariel Dora Stern, Harvard University, "Precision Medicine and the Orphan Drug Act"

Pian Shu, Georgia Institute of Technology, and Claudia Steinwender, MIT and NBER, "Innovating in a Global Economy"

Joshua Gans, Ajay K. Agrawal, and Avi Goldfarb, University of Toronto and NBER, "The Economics of Artificial Intelligence"

Pierre Azoulay, MIT and NBER; Erica Fuchs, Carnegie Mellon University; Michael Kearney, MIT; and Anna Goldstein, Stanford University, "Funding Breakthrough Research: Promises and Challenges of the ‘ARPA Model'" (NBER Working Paper No. 24674)

Lee G. Branstetter, Carnegie Mellon University and NBER; Britta Glennon, Carnegie Mellon University; and J. Bradford Jensen, Georgetown University and NBER, "The IT Revolution and the Globalization of R&D" (NBER Working Paper No. 24707)

Jason Furman, Harvard Kennedy School, and Robert Seamans, New York University, "Artificial Intelligence and the Economy"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/confer/2018/IPEs18/summary.html

A conference on the Economics of Culture and Institutions took place on April 27–28 in Cambridge. Research Associates Alberto Bisin of New York University and Paola Giuliano of the University of California, Los Angeles organized the meeting. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Benjamin Enke, Harvard University and NBER, "Kinship Systems, Cooperation, and the Evolution of Culture" (NBER Working Paper No. 23499)

Daniel L. Chen, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse; Elliott Ash, University of Warwick; and Suresh Naidu, Columbia University and NBER, "Ideas Have Consequences: The Impact of Law and Economics on American Justice"

Sara Lowes, Università Bocconi, and Eduardo J. Montero, Harvard University, "Blood Rubber"

Jacob Moscona, MIT; Nathan Nunn, Harvard University and NBER; and James A. Robinson, University of Chicago and NBER, "Social Structure and Conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa" (NBER Working Paper No. 24209)

Klaus Desmet, Southern Methodist University, and Romain Wacziarg, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, "The Cultural Divide" (NBER Working Paper No. 24630)

Christian Dippel, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, and Stephan Heblich, University of Bristol, "Leadership and Social Norms: Evidence from the Forty-Eighters in the Civil War" (NBER Working Paper No. 24656)

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/confer/2018/CIs18/summary.html

A conference on The Role of Immigrants and Foreign Students in Science, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship took place on April 27 in Cambridge. Ina Ganguli of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst; Shulamit Kahn of Boston University, and Research Associate Megan MacGarvie of Boston University organized the meeting, which was sponsored by the National Science Foundation Science of Science and Innovation Policy Program and the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Michael Roach, Cornell University; Henry Sauermann, European School of Management and Technology and NBER; and John Skrentny, University of California, San Diego, "U.S. Immigration Policies and the STEM Entrepreneurial Workforce"

J. David Brown, U.S. Bureau of the Census, and John S. Earle, Mee Jung Kim, and Kyung-Min Lee, George Mason University, "Are Immigrants More Innovative? Evidence from the Annual Survey of Entrepreneurs"

Stefano Breschi, Università Bocconi; and Francesco Lissoni and Ernest Miguelez, Université de Bordeaux, "Returnee Migrants' Self-selection: Evidence for Indian Inventors in the U.S."

Kirk B. Doran and Chungeun Yoon, University of Notre Dame, "How Reducing Immigration Affects Innovation: Evidence from the Closing of America's Borders to Southern and Eastern Europe"

Gaurav Khanna and Munseob Lee, University of California, San Diego, "High-Skill Immigration, Innovation, and Creative Destruction"

Anna Maria Mayda, Georgetown University; Francesc Ortega, Queens College and Graduate Center CUNY; Giovanni Peri, University of California, Davis and NBER; Chad Sparber, Colgate University; and Kevin Y. Shih, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, "The Effect of H-1B Visas on Firms: Evidence from Publicly Traded Firms"

Sari Pekkala Kerr, Wellesley College, and William R. Kerr, Harvard University and NBER, "High-Skilled Immigrant Networking and Innovation"

Ina Ganguli and Patrick Gaule, CERGE-EI, "Will the U.S. Keep the Best and the Brightest (as Post-docs)? Career and Location Preferences of Foreign STEM PhDs"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/confer/2018/IIs18/summary.html

A conference on New Developments in Long-Term Asset Management took place on May 3–4 in New York. Research Associates Monika Piazzesi of Stanford University and Luis M. Viceira of Harvard University organized the meeting, which was sponsored by the Norwegian Finance Initiative. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Lars A. Lochstoer, University of California, Los Angeles, and Paul Tetlock, Columbia University, "What Drives Anomaly Returns?"

Shmuel Baruch, University of Utah, and Xiaodi Zhang, University of Central Florida, "Is Index Trading Benign?"

Kewei Hou, The Ohio State University; Chen Xue, University of Cincinnati; and Lu Zhang, The Ohio State University and NBER, "Replicating Anomalies" (NBER Working Paper No. 23394)

Marcin Kacperczyk, Savitar Sundaresan, and Tianyu Wang, Imperial College London, "Do Foreign Investors Improve Market Efficiency?"

Arpit Gupta, New York University, and Kunal Sachdeva, Columbia University, "Skin or Skim? Inside Investment and Hedge Fund Performance"

Bryan T. Kelly, Yale University and NBER; Seth Pruitt, Arizona State University; and Yinan Su, University of Chicago, "Characteristics Are Covariances: A Unified Model of Risk and Return" (NBER Working Paper No. 24540)

Stephen G. Dimmock, Nanyang Technological University; Neng Wang, Columbia University and NBER; and Jinqiang Yang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, "The Endowment Model and Modern Portfolio Theory"

Valentin Haddad and Tyler Muir, University of California, Los Angeles and NBER, "Do Intermediaries Matter for Aggregate Asset Prices?"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/confer/2018/LTAMs18/summary.html

A conference on Trade and Agriculture took place on May 17–18 in Cambridge. Research Associate Dave Donaldson of MIT organized the meeting, which was sponsored by the Economic Research Service at the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Giannini Foundation at the University of California. These researchers' papers were presented and discussed:

Jayson Beckman, U.S. Department of Agriculture; Carmen Estrades and Manuel Flores, Universidad de la República (Uruguay); and Angel H. Aguiar, Purdue University, "The Impacts of Export Taxes on Agricultural Trade"

Douglas Gollin, University of Oxford, and Casper W. Hansen and Asger Wingender, University of Copenhagen, "Two Blades of Grass: The Impact of the Green Revolution"

Christophe Gouel, INRA-AgroParisTech, and David Laborde, IFPRI, "The Crucial Role of International Trade in Adaptation to Climate Change"

Jonathan I. Dingel, University of Chicago and NBER; Solomon M. Hsiang, University of California, Berkeley and NBER; and Kyle C. Meng, University of California, Santa Barbara and NBER, "The Spatial Structure of Productivity, Trade, and Inequality: Evidence from the Global Climate"

Osea Giuntella, University of Pittsburgh; Matthias Rieger, Erasmus University; and Lorenzo Rotunno, Aix-Marseille University, "Weight Gains from Trade in Foods: Evidence from Mexico"

Marshall Burke, Stanford University and NBER; Lauren F. Bergquist, Becker Friedman Institute; and Edward Miguel, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, "Sell Low and Buy High: Arbitrage and Local Price Effects in Kenyan Markets" (NBER Working Paper No. 24476)

Thibault Fally, University of California, Berkeley and NBER, and James E. Sayre, University of California, Berkeley, "Commodity Trade Matters"

Uris Baldos and Thomas Hertel, Purdue University, and Frances Moore, University of California, Davis, "The Biophysical and Economic Geographies of Global Climate Impacts on Agriculture"

Colin A. Carter, University of California, Davis, and Sandro Steinbach, ETH Zurich, "Trade Diversion and the Initiation Effect: A Case Study of U.S. Trade Remedies in Agriculture"

Kari Heerman, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and Ian M. Sheldon, The Ohio State University, "Gravity and Comparative Advantage: Estimation of Trade Elasticities for the Agricultural Sector"

Shilpa Aggarwal, Indian School of Business; Brian J. Giera, Amazon Research; Dahyeon Jeong and Alan Spearot, University of California, Santa Cruz; and Jonathan Robinson, University of California, Santa Cruz and NBER, "Market Access, Trade Costs, and Technology Adoption: Evidence from Northern Tanzania"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/confer/2018/TAs18/summary.html

The 2018 Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Symposium, cosponsored by the NBER and STICERD, the Suntory-Toyota International Centre for Economics and Related Disciplines at the London School of Economics (LSE) was held at the LSE on June 4–5. Research Associate Hilary W. Hoynes of the University of California, Berkeley, and Camille Landais and Johannes Spinnewijn, both of LSE, organized the meeting. These researchers’ papers were presented and discussed:

Jenna E. Stearns, University of California, Davis, "The Long-Run Effects of Wage Replacement and Job Protection: Evidence from Two Maternity Leave Reforms in Great Britain"

Andreas Kuhn, Swiss Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training; Stefan Staubli, University of Calgary and NBER; and Jean-Philippe Wuellrich and Josef Zweimueller, University of Zurich, "Fatal Attraction? Extended Unemployment Benefits, Labor Force Exits, and Mortality"

Michael Graber, University of Chicago, "Labor Income Dynamics over the Business Cycle"

Orazio Attanasio, University College London and NBER; Richard Blundell, University College London and IFS; and Gabriella Conti and Giacomo Mason, University College London, "Inequality in Noncognitive Skills: a Cross-Cohort Comparison"

Joseph P. Ferrie, Northwestern University and NBER; Claudia Goldin, Harvard University and NBER; Quentin O. Brummet, U.S. Bureau of the Census; Claudia Olivetti, Boston College and NBER; Karen Rolf, University of Nebraska, Omaha; and Elizabeth Mokyr Horner, American Institutes for Research, "Early-Life Education and Late-Life Outcomes: Exposure to Pre-School 1943–46 and Well-Being After Age 50"

Hyejin Ku, Uta Schonberg, and Ragnhild C. Schreiner, University College London, "Do Place-Based Tax Incentives Create Jobs?"

Fabian Kindermann, University of Bonn; Lukas Mayr, European University Institute; and Dominik Sachs, University of Munich, "Inheritance Taxation and Wealth Effects on the Labor Supply of Heirs"

Camille Terrier, MIT, IZA, and CEP, and Matthew W. Ridley, MIT, "Fiscal and Education Spillovers from Charter Expansion"

Bruce D. Meyer, University of Chicago and NBER, and James X. Sullivan, University of Notre Dame, "Inequality in the Joint Distribution of Consumption and Time Use"

Lorenz Kueng, Northwestern University and NBER; Scott R. Baker, Northwestern University; Michaela Pagel, Columbia University and NBER; and Steffen Meyer, University of Hannover, "Measurement Error in Imputed Consumption"

Summaries of these papers are at www.nber.org/confer/2018/TAPES18/summary.html