Procyclicality and Monetary Aggregates
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NBER Working Paper No. 16836
Issued in February 2011
NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth
Financial intermediaries borrow in order to lend. When credit is increasing rapidly, the traditional deposit funding (core liabilities) is supplemented with other funding (non-core liabilities). We explore the hypothesis that monetary aggregates reflect the size of non-core and core liabilities and hence convey information on the stage of the financial cycle. In emerging economies with open capital markets, non-core liabilities of the banking system take the form of short-term foreign exchange liabilities, increasing the vulnerability to the outbreak of "twin crises" where a liquidity crisis is compounded by a currency crisis.
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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w16836