New This Week Archive

NBER Working Papers released in the past, by week.

Weekly papers: released by September 24, 2012

• Does Agriculture Generate Local Economic Spillovers? Short-run and Long-run Evidence from the Ogallala Aquifer
  Richard Hornbeck and Pinar Keskin #18416 (DAE   EEE   EFG)
  
• Corporate Taxes and Internal Borrowing within Multinational Firms
  Peter Egger, Christian Keuschnigg, Valeria Merlo, and Georg Wamser #18415 (ITI   PE)
  
• Cherries for Sale: Export Networks and the Incidence of Cross-Border M&A
  Bruce A. Blonigen, Lionel Fontagné, Nicholas Sly, and Farid Toubal #18414 (ITI)
  
• Sentiments and Aggregate Demand Fluctuations
  Jess Benhabib, Pengfei Wang, and Yi Wen #18413 (EFG)
  
• Financial Literacy, Financial Education and Economic Outcomes
  Justine S. Hastings, Brigitte C. Madrian, and William L. Skimmyhorn #18412 (AG   ED   LS   PE)
  
• An Intertemporal CAPM with Stochastic Volatility
  John Y. Campbell, Stefano Giglio, Christopher Polk, and Robert Turley #18411 (AP)
  
• The Most Egalitarian of All Professions: Pharmacy and the Evolution of a Family-Friendly Occupation
  Claudia Goldin and Lawrence F. Katz #18410 (DAE   LS)
  
• The Macroeconomic Effects of Interest on Reserves
  Peter N. Ireland #18409 (ME)
  
• Endogenous Liquidity and Defaultable Bonds
  Zhiguo He and Konstantin Milbradt #18408 (AP   CF   EFG)
  
• Projecting the Effect of Changes in Smoking and Obesity on Future Life Expectancy in the United States
  Samuel H. Preston, Andrew Stokes, Neil K. Mehta, and Bochen Cao #18407 (HC)
  
• Adverse Selection In Credit Markets and Regressive Profit Taxation
  Florian Scheuer #18406 (AP   EFG   LS   PE   PR)
  
• The Role Of Intangible Capital in the Transformation and Growth of the Chinese Economy
  Charles R. Hulten and Janet X. Hao #18405 (PR)
  
• Capital Account Policies and the Real Exchange Rate
  Olivier Jeanne #18404 (IFM)
  
• Land and House Price Measurement in China
  Yongheng Deng, Joseph Gyourko, and Jing Wu #18403 (PE)
  
• Learning Through Noticing: Theory and Experimental Evidence in Farming
  Rema Hanna, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Joshua Schwartzstein #18401 (DEV   LS   PR)
  
• What Have They Been Thinking? Home Buyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets
  Karl E. Case, Robert J. Shiller, and Anne Thompson #18400 (vAP   EFG)
  

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Weekly papers: released by September 17, 2012

• Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Models with Stochastic Volatility
  Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana, and Juan Rubio-Ramírez #18399 (EFG)
  
• Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk
  Markus K. Brunnermeier and Martin Oehmke #18398 (AP   CF   ME)
  
• Some Reflections on the Recent Financial Crisis
  Gary B. Gorton #18397 (AP   CF   EFG   ME)
  
• American Incomes 1774-1860
  Peter H. Lindert and Jeffrey G. Williamson #18396 (DAE)
  
• Executive Compensation and Corporate Governance in the U.S.: Perceptions, Facts and Challenges
  Steven N. Kaplan #18395 (CF)
  
• How Do Regulators Influence Mortgage Risk: Evidence from an Emerging Market
  John Y. Campbell, Tarun Ramadorai, and Benjamin Ranish #18394 (AP   CF)
  
• The Joint Identification of Utility and Discount Functions From Stated Choice Data: An Application to Durable Goods Adoption
  Jean-Pierre H. Dube, Günter J. Hitsch, and Pranav Jindal #18393 (IO)
  
• The Effects of Environmental Regulation on the Competitiveness of U.S. Manufacturing
  Michael Greenstone, John A. List, and Chad Syverson #18392 (EEE   IO   PR)
  
• Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests
  Francis X. Diebold #18391 (AP   EFG   IFM   TWP)
  
• Shale Gas Development and Property Values: Differences across Drinking Water Sources
  Lucija Muehlenbachs, Elisheba Spiller, and Christopher Timmins #18390 (EEE)
  
• The Supply of and Demand for Charitable Donations to Higher Education
  Jeffrey R. Brown, Stephen G. Dimmock, and Scott Weisbenner #18389 (ED   LS   PE)
  
• The New Deal and the Origins of the Modern American Real Estate Loan Contract
  Jonathan Rose and Kenneth A. Snowden #18388 (DAE)
  
• Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment
  Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, and Matthew J. Notowidigdo #18387 (LS)
  
• The United States Labor Market: Status Quo or A New Normal?
  Edward P. Lazear and James R. Spletzer #18386 (LS   PE)
  
• Public Procurement and the Private Supply of Green Buildings
  Timothy Simcoe and Michael W. Toffel #18385 (PR)
  
• A Cautionary Note on Using Industry Affiliation to Predict Income
  Jörn-Steffen Pischke and Hannes Schwandt #18384 (HC   LS)
  
• Russian Inequality on the Eve of Revolution
  Steven Nafziger and Peter H. Lindert #18383 (DAE   LS   PE)
  
• Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates
  Charles Engel, Nelson C. Mark, and Kenneth D. West #18382 (AP   IFM   ME)
  
• Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions
  Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning #18381 (EFG   IFM   ME)
  
• On the Solvency of Nations: Cross-Country Evidence on the Dynamics of External Adjustment
  C. Bora Durdu, Enrique G. Mendoza, and Marco E. Terrones #18380 (IFM)
  
• An Anatomy of Credit Booms and their Demise
  Enrique G. Mendoza and Marco E. Terrones #18379 (IFM)
  
• State vs Consumer Regulation: An Evaluation of Two Road Safety Interventions in Kenya
  James Habyarimana and William Jack #18378 (HE)
  
• Fragile Debt and the Credible Sharing of Strategic Uncertainty
  Russell Cooper #18377 (EFG)
  
• A Study of the Extent and Potential Causes of Alternative Employment Arrangements
  Peter Cappelli and JR Keller #18376 (IO   LS)
  
• Predation, Economic Activity and Violence: Evidence from the Philippines
  Eli Berman, Joseph Felter, Ethan Kapstein, and Erin Troland #18375 (PE   POL)
  
• Beyond Happiness and Satisfaction: Toward Well-Being Indices Based on Stated Preference
  Daniel J. Benjamin, Ori Heffetz, Miles S. Kimball, and Nichole Szembrot #18374 (AG   PE)
  
• External Validity and Partner Selection Bias
  Hunt Allcott and Sendhil Mullainathan #18373 (EEE   LS)
  

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Weekly papers: released by September 10, 2012

• Capital Mobility and International Sharing of Cyclical Risk
  Julien Bengui, Enrique G. Mendoza, and Vincenzo Quadrini #18372 (IFM)
  
• Early-Life Health and Adult Circumstance in Developing Countries
  Janet Currie and Tom Vogl #18371 (AG   CH   HC   HE   LS)
  
• The Cyclical Response of Advertising Refutes Counter-Cyclical Profit Margins in Favor of Product-Market Frictions
  Robert E. Hall #18370 (EFG   LS   ME)
  
• Expanding School Resources and Increasing Time on Task: Effects of a Policy Experiment in Israel on Student Academic Achievement and Behavior
  Victor Lavy #18369 (ED   LS)
  
• Healing the Wounds: Learning from Sierra Leone's Post-war Institutional Reforms
  Katherine Casey, Rachel Glennerster, and Edward Miguel #18368 (POL)
  
• Systematic Risk, Debt Maturity, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads
  Hui Chen, Yu Xu, and Jun Yang #18367 (AP   CF)
  
• Home Production, Labor Wedges, and International Real Business Cycles
  Loukas Karabarbounis #18366 (EFG   IFM)
  
• Continuous-Time Methods for Integrated Assessment Models
  Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L. Judd, and Thomas S. Lontzek #18365 (EEE   TWP)
  
• Explaining Preferences for Control Rights in Strategic Alliances: A Property Rights and Capabilities Perspective Approach
  Carolin Haeussler and Matthew J. Higgins #18364 (LE   PR)
  
• Sovereign Debt in Latin America, 1820–1913
  Gerardo della Paolera and Alan M. Taylor #18363 (DAE   IFM)
  
• Global House Price Fluctuations: Synchronization and Determinants
  Hideaki Hirata, M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, and Marco E. Terrones #18362 (EFG   IFM   ME)
  
• Recessions, Older Workers, and Longevity: How Long Are Recessions Good For Your Health?
  Courtney C. Coile, Phillip B. Levine, and Robin McKnight #18361 (AG   HC   HE   LS)
  
• The Asymmetric Effects of Financial Frictions
  Guillermo Ordoñez #18360 (EFG   ME)
  
• Consumer Inertia and Firm Pricing in the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Insurance Exchange
  Keith M. Marzilli Ericson #18359 (AG   HC   PE)
  
• Valuation, Adverse Selection, and Market Collapses
  Michael J. Fishman and Jonathan A. Parker #18358 (AP   CF   EFG   ME)
  
• A Long-Run Risks Explanation of Predictability Puzzles in Bond and Currency Markets
  Ravi Bansal and Ivan Shaliastovich #18357 (AP   IFM   ME)
  
• Syndicated Loan Spreads and the Composition of the Syndicate
  Jongha Lim, Bernadette A. Minton, and Michael Weisbach #18356 (CF)
  
• Elections and the Quality of Public Officials: Evidence from U.S. State Courts
  Claire S.H. Lim and James M. Snyder, Jr. #18355 (LE   POL)
  
• A Theory of Political and Economic Cycles
  Laurence Ales, Pricila Maziero, and Pierre Yared #18354 (EFG   POL)
  
• Foreclosure externalities: Some new evidence
  Kristopher Gerardi, Eric Rosenblatt, Paul S. Willen, and Vincent Yao #18353 (EFG)
  
• A Tale of Politically-Failing Single-Currency Area
  Assaf Razin and Steven Rosefielde #18352 (IFM)
  

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Weekly papers: released by September 3, 2012

• Network Structure and the Aggregation of Information: Theory and Evidence from Indonesia
  Vivi Alatas, Abhijit Banerjee, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Rema Hanna, and Benjamin A. Olken #18351 (PE   POL)
  
• From Empty Pews to Empty Cradles: Fertility Decline Among European Catholics
  Eli Berman, Laurence R. Iannaccone, and Giuseppe Ragusa #18350 (CH   LS   PE)
  
• Does the Effect of Pollution on Infant Mortality Differ Between Developing and Developed Countries? Evidence from Mexico City
  Eva O. Arceo-Gomez, Rema Hanna, and Paulina Oliva #18349 (EEE   HE)
  
• Refining Linear Rational Expectations Models and Equilibria
  Seonghoon Cho and Bennett T. McCallum #18348 (EFG   ME)
  
• Wages and Informality in Developing Countries
  Costas Meghir, Renata Narita, and Jean-Marc Robin #18347 (LS)
  
• R&D and the Incentives from Merger and Acquisition Activity
  Gordon M. Phillips and Alexei Zhdanov #18346 (CF   IO)
  
• Which Financial Frictions? Parsing the Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-9
  Tobias Adrian, Paolo Colla, and Hyun Song Shin #18335 (CF   ME)
  
• Mussa Redux and Conditional PPP
  Paul R. Bergin, Reuven Glick, and Jyh-Lin Wu #18331 (IFM)
  
• Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program
  Sumit Agarwal, Gene Amromin, Itzhak Ben-David, Souphala Chomsisengphet, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru #18311 (CF   EFG   PE)
  
• A New Look at Second Liens
  Donghoon Lee, Christopher J. Mayer, and Joseph Tracy #18269 (PE)
  

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Weekly papers: released by August 27, 2012

• Temperature, Human Health, and Adaptation: A Review of the Empirical Literature
  Olivier Deschenes #18345 (EEE)
  
• Knowledge is (Less) Power: Experimental Evidence from Residential Energy Use
  Katrina Jessoe and David Rapson #18344 (EEE)
  
• The Labor Market Returns to a For-Profit College Education
  Stephanie Riegg Cellini and Latika Chaudhary #18343 (ED   LS)
  
• The Distributional Effects of the Social Security Windfall Elimination Provision
  Jeffrey R. Brown and Scott Weisbenner #18342 (AG   PE)
  
• The Impact of Physical Education on Obesity among Elementary School Children
  John Cawley, David Frisvold, and Chad Meyerhoefer #18341 (CH   ED   HE   LE   PE)
  
• Promotional Reviews: An Empirical Investigation of Online Review Manipulation
  Dina Mayzlin, Yaniv Dover, and Judith A. Chevalier #18340 (IO   PR)
  
• Mortgage Market Design
  John Y. Campbell #18339 (AP   CF   ME)
  
• Back to the Future? Abortion Before & After Roe
  Theodore J. Joyce, Ruoding Tan, and Yuxiu Zhang #18338 (HE)
  
• Sources of Comparative Advantage in Polluting Industries
  Fernando Broner, Paula Bustos, and Vasco M. Carvalho #18337 (EEE   ITI)
  
• The Output Effect of Fiscal Consolidations
  Alberto Alesina, Carlo Favero, and Francesco Giavazzi #18336 (IFM   ME)
  
• The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries
  Nir Jaimovich and Henry E. Siu #18334 (EFG   LS)
  
• Entrepreneurship and Urban Growth: An Empirical Assessment with Historical Mines
  Edward L. Glaeser, Sari Pekkala Kerr, and William R. Kerr #18333 (DAE   EFG   LS   PR)
  
• Equalizing Outcomes vs. Equalizing Opportunities: Optimal Taxation when Children's Abilities Depend on Parents' Resources
  Alexander M. Gelber and Matthew C. Weinzierl #18332 (CH   PE)
  
• Mussa Redux and Conditional PPP
  Paul R. Bergin, Reuven Glick, and Jyh-Lin Wu #18331 (IFM)
  

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Weekly papers: released by August 20, 2012

• Taylor Rule Exchange Rate Forecasting During the Financial Crisis
  Tanya Molodtsova and David Papell #18330 (   IFM)
  
• Debt- and Equity-Led Capital Flow Episodes
  Kristin J. Forbes and Francis E. Warnock #18329 (IFM)
  
• Development, Discouragement, or Diversion? New Evidence on the Effects of College Remediation
  Judith Scott-Clayton and Olga Rodriguez #18328 (ED)
  
• Lead Policy and Academic Performance: Insights from Massachusetts
  Jessica Wolpaw Reyes #18327 (AG   CH   ED   EEE   HE)
  
• Do Higher Tobacco Taxes Reduce Adult Smoking? New Evidence of the Effect of Recent Cigarette Tax Increases on Adult Smoking
  Kevin Callison and Robert Kaestner #18326 (HE)
  
• Hoping to Win, Expected to Lose: Theory and Lessons on Micro Enterprise Development
  Dean Karlan, Ryan Knight, and Christopher Udry #18325 (CF   LE   LS)
  
• The Effect of School Choice on Intrinsic Motivation and Academic Outcomes
  Justine S. Hastings, Christopher A. Neilson, and Seth D. Zimmerman #18324 (CH   ED)
  
• A Continuity Refinement for Rational Expectations Solutions
  Bennett T. McCallum #18323 (EFG   ME   TWP)
  
• The Effect of Income and Immigration Policies on International Migration
  Francesc Ortega and Giovanni Peri #18322 (ITI   LS)
  
• The Cost of Financial Frictions for Life Insurers
  Ralph S.J. Koijen and Motohiro Yogo #18321 (AP   CF   EFG   IO   ME   PE)
  
• Race and the Politics of Close Elections
  Tom Vogl #18320 (LS   POL)
  
• Marriage Institutions and Sibling Competition: Evidence from South Asia
  Tom Vogl #18319 (CH   LS)
  
• Height, Skills, and Labor Market Outcomes in Mexico
  Tom Vogl #18318 (CH   HE   LS)
  
• The Value of Bosses
  Edward P. Lazear, Kathryn L. Shaw, and Christopher T. Stanton #18317 (LS)
  
• Do Patent Pools Encourage Innovation? Evidence from 20 U.S. Industries under the New Deal
  Ryan L. Lampe and Petra Moser #18316 (DAE   IO   PR)
  
• Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds
  Robert J. Gordon #18315 (DAE   EFG   PR)
  
• International Prices and Endogenous Quality
  Robert C. Feenstra and John Romalis #18314 (ITI)
  
• The Need for Enemies
  Leopoldo Fergusson, James A. Robinson, Ragnar Torvik, and Juan F. Vargas #18313 (POL)
  
• Channels of Influence
  Lauren Cohen, Umit G. Gurun, and Christopher J. Malloy #18312 (AP   ITI)
  
• Immigration and Production Technology
  Ethan G. Lewis #18310 (LS   PR)
  
• Saving Teens: Using a Policy Discontinuity to Estimate the Effects of Medicaid Eligibility
  Bruce D. Meyer and Laura R. Wherry #18309 (CH   HC   HE   LS   PE)
  
• The Validity of Consumption Data: Are the Consumer Expenditure Interview and Diary Surveys Informative?
  Adam Bee, Bruce D. Meyer, and James X. Sullivan #18308 (AG   DAE   EFG   LS   PE   TWP)
  
• Open Borders
  John Kennan #18307 (EFG   ITI   LS)
  
• The SO2 Allowance Trading System: The Ironic History of a Grand Policy Experiment
  Richard Schmalensee and Robert Stavins #18306 (EEE   PE   POL)
  
• Risks For the Long Run: Estimation with Time Aggregation
  Ravi Bansal, Dana Kiku, and Amir Yaron #18305 (AP   EFG   ME)
  
• An Empirical Analysis of the Fed's Term Auction Facility
  Efraim Benmelech #18304 (AP   CF   EFG)
  
• Banks, Sovereign Debt and the International Transmission of Business Cycles
  Luca Guerrieri, Matteo Iacoviello, and Raoul Minetti #18303 (IFM)
  
• Did the Americanization Movement Succeed? An Evaluation of the Effect of English-Only and Compulsory Schools Laws on Immigrants' Education
  Adriana Lleras-Muney and Allison Shertzer #18302 (DAE   ED)
  
• The Choice of Discount Rate for Climate Change Policy Evaluation
  Lawrence H. Goulder and Roberton C. Williams III #18301 (EEE   PE)
  
• Risk and Returns to Education
  Jeffrey Brown, Chichun Fang, and Francisco Gomes #18300 (AP   ED   LS   PE)
  
• Removing Financial Barriers to Organ and Bone Marrow Donation: The Effect of Leave and Tax Legislation in the U.S.
  Nicola Lacetera, Mario Macis, and Sarah S. Stith #18299 (HE   LE   LS)
  
• Have the Poor Always Been Less Likely to Migrate? Evidence From Inheritance Practices During the Age of Mass Migration
  Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, and Katherine Eriksson #18298 (DAE   LS)
  
• Private Equity and the Innovation Strategies of Entrepreneurial Firms: Empirical Evidence from the Small Business Innovation Research Program
  Albert N. Link, Christopher J. Ruhm, and Donald S. Siegel #18297 (HC   IO   PE   PR)
  
• When the Levee Breaks: Black Migration and Economic Development in the American South
  Richard Hornbeck and Suresh Naidu #18296 (DAE   EFG)
  
• Convergence and Modernization Revisited
  Robert J. Barro #18295 (EFG   ME   PE)
  
• The Impact of Right to Carry Laws and the NRC Report: The Latest Lessons for the Empirical Evaluation of Law and Policy
  Abhay Aneja, John J. Donohue III, and Alexandria Zhang #18294 (LE)
  
• Measuring Price Elasticities for Residential Water Demand with Limited Information
  H. Allen Klaiber, V. Kerry Smith, Michael Kaminsky, and Aaron Strong #18293 (EEE)
  
• Lens or Prism? Patent Citations as a Measure of Knowledge Flows from Public Research
  Michael Roach and Wesley M. Cohen #18292 (PR)
  

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Weekly papers: released by August 13, 2012

• Legislating Stock Prices
  Lauren Cohen, Karl B. Diether, and Christopher Malloy #18291 (AP   LE   POL)
  
• The Great Leveraging
  Alan M. Taylor #18290 (DAE   IFM   ME)
  
• The Financial Sector in Burundi
  Janvier D. Nkurunziza, Léonce Ndikumana, and Prime Nyamoya #18289 (IFM)
  
• International Trade and Institutional Change: Medieval Venice's Response to Globalization
  Diego Puga and Daniel Trefler #18288 (ITI)
  
• Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?
  Takeo Hoshi and Takatoshi Ito #18287 (AG   IFM   ME   PE)
  
• The Price Theory of Money, Prospero's Liquidity Trap, and Sudden Stop: Back to Basics and Back
  Guillermo A. Calvo #18285 (IFM)
  
• The Evolution of Endogenous Business Cycles
  Roger E.A. Farmer #18284 (EFG)
  
• Over-optimistic Official Forecasts in the Eurozone and Fiscal Rules
  Jeffrey A. Frankel and Jesse Schreger #18283 (EFG   PE)
  
• Private Information and Insurance Rejections
  Nathaniel Hendren #18282 (AG   HC   HE   IO   PE)
  
• The Trillion Dollar Conundrum: Complementarities and Health Information Technology
  David Dranove, Christopher Forman, Avi Goldfarb, and Shane Greenstein #18281 (IO   PR)
  
• Am I my Brother's Keeper? Sibling Spillover Effects: The Case of Developmental Disabilities and Externalizing Behavior
  Jason Fletcher, Nicole L. Hair, and Barbara L. Wolfe #18279 (CH   HE)
  
• Airports and Urban Growth: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Policy Experiment
  Bruce A. Blonigen and Anca D. Cristea #18278 (   EFG   IO   PE)
  
• Heterogeneity in High Math Achievement Across Schools: Evidence from the American Mathematics Competitions
  Glenn Ellison and Ashley Swanson #18277 (ED)
  

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Weekly papers: released by August 6, 2012

• Does it Matter if Your Health Insurer is For-Profit? Effects of Ownership on Premiums, Insurance Coverage, and Medical Spending
  Leemore Dafny and Subramaniam Ramanarayanan #18286 (AG   HC   IO)
  
• Fiscal Unions
  Ivan Werning and Emmanuel Farhi #18280 (EFG   IFM   ME)
  
• Homework in Monetary Economics: Inflation, Home Production, and the Production of Homes
  S. Boragan Aruoba, Morris A. Davis, and Randall Wright #18276 (EFG)
  
• National Institutions and African Development: Evidence from Partitioned Ethnicities
  Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou #18275 (EFG   IFM   POL)
  
• Time to Ship During Financial Crises
  Nicolas Berman, José De Sousa, Philippe Martin, and Thierry Mayer #18274 (IFM   ITI)
  
• The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications
  Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Gee Hee Hong #18273 (EFG   ME)
  
• New Multi-City Estimates of the Changes in Home Values, 1920-1940
  Price V. Fishback and Trevor Kollmann #18272 (DAE)
  
• What Was New About the New Deal?
  Price V. Fishback and John Joseph Wallis #18271 (DAE)
  
• Did Capital Requirements and Fair Value Accounting Spark Fire Sales in Distressed Mortgage-Backed Securities?
  Craig B. Merrill, Taylor D. Nadauld, René M. Stulz, and Shane Sherlund #18270 (CF)
  
• Letter Grading Government Efficiency
  Alberto Chong, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer #18268 (EFG   LE   POL)
  
• Defensive Investments and the Demand for Air Quality: Evidence from the NOx Budget Program and Ozone Reductions
  Olivier Deschenes, Michael Greenstone, and Joseph S. Shapiro #18267 (CH   EEE   HC   HE   LS   PE)
  
• Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in Mexico
  David G. Atkin #18266 (ITI)
  
• Mismatch Unemployment
  Ayşegül Şahin, Joseph Song, Giorgio Topa, and Giovanni L. Violante #18265 (EFG   LS)
  

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Weekly papers: released by July 30, 2012

• Economic Effects of Runs on Early 'Shadow Banks': Trust Companies and the Impact of the Panic of 1907
  Carola Frydman, Eric Hilt, and Lily Y. Zhou #18264 (CF   DAE   ME)
  
• As Certain as Debt and Taxes: Estimating the Tax Sensitivity of Leverage from Exogenous State Tax Changes
  Florian Heider and Alexander Ljungqvist #18263 (CF)
  
• Risk and Return in Environmental Economics
  Robert S. Pindyck #18262 (EEE)
  
• Social Support Substitution and the Earnings Rebound: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity in Disability Insurance Reform
  Lex Borghans, Anne C. Gielen, and Erzo F.P. Luttmer #18261 (LS   PE)
  
• The Connection between Imported Intermediate Inputs and Exports: Evidence from Chinese Firms
  Ling Feng, Zhiyuan Li, and Deborah L. Swenson #18260 (ITI)
  
• The Anatomy of French Production Hierarchies
  Lorenzo Caliendo, Ferdinando Monte, and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg #18259 (EFG   ITI   PR)
  
• Estimating Second Order Probability Beliefs from Subjective Survival Data
  Péter Hudomiet and Robert J. Willis #18258 (AG   LS)
  
• Cycles of Distrust: An Economic Model
  Daron Acemoglu and Alexander Wolitzky #18257 (POL)
  
• FX Counterparty Risk and Trading Activity in Currency Forward and Futures Markets
  Richard M. Levich #18256 (IFM)
  
• Does Seeing the Doctor More Often Keep You Out of the Hospital?
  Robert Kaestner and Anthony T. Lo Sasso #18255 (HE)
  
• The Role of Federal and State Dependent Coverage Eligibility Policies on the Health Insurance Status of Young Adults
  Joel C. Cantor, Alan C. Monheit, Derek DeLia, and Kristen Lloyd #18254 (HC   HE)
  
• Estimating the Effects of Friendship Networks on Health Behaviors of Adolescents
  Jason M. Fletcher and Stephen L. Ross #18253 (HE)
  
• Log Odds and Ends
  Edward C. Norton #18252 (HE)
  
• Market Liquidity — Theory and Empirical Evidence
  Dimitri Vayanos and Jiang Wang #18251 (AP)
  
• Clusters, Convergence, and Economic Performance
  Mercedes Delgado, Michael E. Porter, and Scott Stern #18250 (PR)
  
• The Determinants of National Competitiveness
  Mercedes Delgado, Christian Ketels, Michael E. Porter, and Scott Stern #18249 (PR)
  

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Weekly papers: released by July 23, 2012

• Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice: Evidence from Commodity Price Shocks
  Justine Hastings and Jesse M. Shapiro #18248 (IO)
  
• Econometric Analysis of Present Value Models When the Discount Factor Is near One
  Kenneth D. West #18247 (AP   IFM   TWP)
  
• Carry-Along Trade
  Andrew B. Bernard, Emily J. Blanchard, Ilke Van Beveren, and Hylke Y. Vandenbussche #18246 (ITI)
  
• Really Uncertain Business Cycles
  Nicholas Bloom, Max Floetotto, Nir Jaimovich, Itay Saporta-Eksten, and Stephen J. Terry #18245 (EFG   ME   PR)
  
• Urban Public Finance
  Edward L. Glaeser #18244 (PE)
  
• Market Size, Division of Labor, and Firm Productivity
  Thomas Chaney and Ralph Ossa #18243 (IO   ITI)
  
• Dividends as Reference Points: A Behavioral Signaling Approach
  Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler #18242 (CF)
  
• Understanding Peer Effects in Financial Decisions: Evidence from a Field Experiment
  Leonardo Bursztyn, Florian Ederer, Bruno Ferman, and Noam Yuchtman #18241 (AP   CF   LS)
  
• Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement
  Robert C. Johnson #18240 (IFM   ITI)
  
• Testing for Racial Prejudice in the Parole Board Release Process: Theory and Evidence
  Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang #18239 (LE   PE)
  
• The Effect of an Increase in Autism Prevalence on the Demand for Auxiliary Healthcare Workers: Evidence from California
  Dhaval M. Dave and Jose M. Fernandez #18238 (HC   HE   LS)
  
• Enhancing the Efficacy of Teacher Incentives through Loss Aversion: A Field Experiment
  Roland G. Fryer, Jr, Steven D. Levitt, John List, and Sally Sadoff #18237 (ED   LS)
  
• Back to the Future of Green Powered Economies
  Juan Moreno Cruz and M. Scott Taylor #18236 (EEE)
  
• Pharmaceutical Innovation and Longevity Growth in 30 Developing and High-income Countries, 2000-2009
  Frank R. Lichtenberg #18235 (AG   EFG   HC   PR)
  
• Competition and Ideological Diversity: Historical Evidence from US Newspapers
  Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro, and Michael Sinkinson #18234 (DAE   IO   POL)
  
• Are Recessions Good for Your Health Behaviors? Impacts of the Economic Crisis in Iceland
  Tinna Laufey Ásgeirsdóttir, Hope Corman, Kelly Noonan, Þórhildur Ólafsdóttir, and Nancy E. Reichman #18233 (HE)
  
• Using Differences in Knowledge Across Neighborhoods to Uncover the Impacts of the EITC on Earnings
  Raj Chetty, John N. Friedman, and Emmanuel Saez #18232 (LS   PE)
  
• The Long of It: Odds that Investor Sentiment Spuriously Predicts Anomaly Returns
  Robert F. Stambaugh, Jianfeng Yu, and Yu Yuan #18231 (AP)
  
• The Effect of Trade and Migration on Income
  Francesc Ortega and Giovanni Peri #18193 (EFG)
  

---

Weekly papers: released by July 16, 2012

• Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change
  Derek M. Lemoine and Christian P. Traeger #18230 (EEE   PE)
  
• Health and Work At Older Ages: Using Mortality To Assess Employment Capacity Across Countries
  Kevin S. Milligan and David A. Wise #18229 (AG)
  
• Redistributive Taxation in the Roy Model
  Casey Rothschild and Florian Scheuer #18228 (EFG   LS   PE)
  
• Overseas Deployment, Combat Exposure, and Well-Being in the 2010 National Survey of Veterans
  Ryan D. Edwards #18227 (HE)
  
• Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia
  Nicholas Wilson #18226 (HC)
  
• How Inflation Affects Macroeconomic Performance: An Agent-Based Computational Investigation
  Quamrul Ashraf, Boris Gershman, and Peter Howitt #18225 (EFG   ME)
  
• Pre-colonial Ethnic Institutions and Contemporary African Development
  Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou #18224 (EFG   POL)
  
• Pegs, Downward Wage Rigidity, and Unemployment: The Role of Financial Structure
  Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé and Martín Uribe #18223 (IFM)
  
• Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting
  Erik Snowberg, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz #18222 (AP   EFG   ME)
  
• The Spread of Manufacturing to the Periphery 1870-2007: Eight Stylized Facts
  Agustín S. Bénétrix, Kevin H. O'Rourke, and Jeffrey G. Williamson #18221 (DAE)
  
• Matching Contributions and Savings Outcomes: A Behavioral Economics Perspective
  Brigitte C. Madrian #18220 (AG   EFG   LS   PE)
  
• Optimal Holdings of International Reserves: Self-Insurance against Sudden Stop
  Guillermo A. Calvo, Alejandro Izquierdo, and Rudy Loo-Kung #18219 (IFM)
  
• Unions in a Frictional Labor Market
  Per Krusell and Leena Rudanko #18218 (EFG   LS)
  
• Inefficient Investment Waves
  Zhiguo He and Péter Kondor #18217 (CF   EFG)
  
• Adolescent Depression and Adult Labor Market Outcomes
  Jason M. Fletcher #18216 (CH   HE   LS)
  
• Determinacy, Learnability, Plausibility, and the Role of Money in New Keynesian Models
  Bennett T. McCallum #18215 (EFG   ME)
  
• Facing the Climate Change Challenge in a Global Economy
  Lee G. Branstetter and William A. Pizer #18214 (EEE   ITI)
  
• Individual Price Adjustment along the Extensive Margin
  Etienne Gagnon, David López-Salido, and Nicolas Vincent #18213 (EFG)
  

---

Weekly papers: released by July 9, 2012

• Projection Bias in the Car and Housing Markets
  Meghan R. Busse, Devin G. Pope, Jaren C. Pope, and Jorge Silva-Risso #18212 (IO   LS)
  
• Cash is King - Revaluation of Targets after Merger Bids
  Ulrike Malmendier, Marcus Matthias Opp, and Farzad Saidi #18211 (CF)
  
• When Does It Pay to Delay Social Security? The Impact of Mortality, Interest Rates, and Program Rules
  John B. Shoven and Sita Nataraj Slavov #18210 (AG)
  
• Global Banks and Crisis Transmission
  Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Elias Papaioannou, and Fabrizio Perri #18209 (IFM)
  
• Boarding a Sinking Ship? An Investigation of Job Applications to Distressed Firms
  Jennifer Brown and David A. Matsa #18208 (CF   LS)
  
• Selection, Reallocation, and Spillover: Identifying the Sources of Gains from Multinational Production
  Laura Alfaro and Maggie X. Chen #18207 (IFM   ITI)
  
• Income, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and Infant Health
  Hilary W. Hoynes, Douglas L. Miller, and David Simon #18206 (CH   HC   HE   LS   PE)
  
• The Climate Policy Dilemma
  Robert S. Pindyck #18205 (EEE)
  
• Choosing Size of Government Under Ambiguity: Infrastructure Spending and Income Taxation
  Charles F. Manski #18204 (PE)
  
• Managing Licensing in a Market for Technology
  Ashish Arora, Andrea Fosfuri, and Thomas Roende #18203 (PR)
  
• The Need for (long) Chains in Kidney Exchange
  Itai Ashlagi, David Gamarnik, Michael A. Rees, and Alvin E. Roth #18202 (HC)
  

---

Weekly papers: released by July 2, 2012

• Evaluating Student Outcomes at For-Profit Colleges
  Kevin Lang and Russell Weinstein #18201 (ED   LS)
  
• Effects of Federal Policy to Insure Young Adults: Evidence from the 2010 Affordable Care Act Dependent Coverage Mandate
  Yaa Akosa Antwi, Asako S. Moriya, and Kosali Simon #18200 (CH   HC   HE)
  
• Dealing with the Trilemma: Optimal Capital Controls with Fixed Exchange Rates
  Emmanuel Farhi and Ivan Werning #18199 (EFG   IFM   ME)
  
• Peer Effects in Program Participation
  Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad #18198 (CH   LS   PE)
  
• Impact of Bilingual Education Programs on Limited English Proficient Students and Their Peers: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Texas
  Aimee Chin, N. Meltem Daysal, and Scott A. Imberman #18197 (CH   ED   LS)
  
• The Benefits of College Athletic Success: An Application of the Propensity Score Design with Instrumental Variables
  Michael L. Anderson #18196 (ED   LS   PE)
  
• The Economics of Options-Implied Inflation Probability Density Functions
  Yuriy Kitsul and Jonathan H. Wright #18195 (ME)
  
• Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record
  Michael D. Bordo and Joseph G. Haubrich #18194 (DAE   ME)
  
• Has Surface Water Quality Improved Since the Clean Water Act?
  V. Kerry Smith and Carlos Valcarcel Wolloh #18192 (EEE)
  
• Trade Wedges, Inventories, and International Business Cycles
  George Alessandria, Joseph Kaboski, and Virgiliu Midrigan #18191 (EFG   IFM   ITI)
  
• Is the FHA Creating Sustainable Homeownership?
  Andrew Caplin, Anna Cororaton, and Joseph Tracy #18190 (   PE)
  
• The Returns to Education in China: Evidence from the 1986 Compulsory Education Law
  Hai Fang, Karen N. Eggleston, John A. Rizzo, Scott Rozelle, and Richard J. Zeckhauser #18189 (ED   LS)
  

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