New This Week Archive

NBER Working Papers released in the past, by week.

Weekly papers, released by March 25, 2013

• Quantifying Productivity Gains from Foreign Investment
  Christian Fons-Rosen, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Bent E. Sørensen, Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, and Vadym Volosovych #18920 (IFM)
  
• Firm Heterogeneity and Aggregate Welfare
  Marc J. Melitz and Stephen J. Redding #18919 (ITI)
  
• Price Indexes for Clinical Trial Research: A Feasibility Study
  Ernst R. Berndt and Iain M. Cockburn #18918 (PR)
  
• Inefficient Hiring in Entry-Level Labor Markets
  Amanda Pallais #18917 (LS)
  
• Subjective and Objective Indicators of Racial Progress
  Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers #18916 (DAE   LE   LS)
  
• The Long-term Effects of Early Lead Exposure: Evidence from a case of Environmental Negligence
  Tomás Rau, Loreto Reyes, and Sergio S. Urzúa #18915 (CH   DEV   EEE)
  
• No News is News: Do Markets Underreact to Nothing?
  Stefano Giglio and Kelly Shue #18914 (AP   CF)
  
• The Articulation Effect of Government Policy: Health Insurance Mandates Versus Taxes
  Keith Marzilli Ericson and Judd B. Kessler #18913 (HC   LE   PE)
  
• The Market for OTC Derivatives
  Andrew G. Atkeson, Andrea L. Eisfeldt, and Pierre-Olivier Weill #18912 (AP   EFG   ME)
  
• A Theory of Competitive Saving Motive
  Qingyuan Du and Shang-Jin Wei #18911 (DEV   IFM   ME)
  
• Advertising Expensive Mortgages
  Umit G. Gurun, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru #18910 (CF   IO   LE)
  
• Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market
  Bo Becker and Victoria Ivashina #18909 (CF)
  
• A Spatial Approach to Energy Economics
  Juan Moreno Cruz and M. Scott Taylor #18908 (EEE)
  
• Financial Education and Choice in State Public Pension Systems
  Julie Agnew and Joshua Hurwitz #18907 (PE)
  
• Feedback Effects of Commodity Futures Prices
  Michael Sockin and Wei Xiong #18906 (AP   IFM   ME)
  
• Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs
  Wei Xiong #18905 (   AP)
  
• Wall Street and the Housing Bubble
  Ing-Haw Cheng, Sahil Raina, and Wei Xiong #18904 (AP   CF   ME)
  
• Indirect Incentives of Hedge Fund Managers
  Jongha Lim, Berk A. Sensoy, and Michael S. Weisbach #18903 (AP   CF   LS)
  
• Retirement Plan Type and Employee Mobility: The Role of Selection and Incentive Effects
  Gopi Shah Goda, Damon Jones, and Colleen Flaherty Manchester #18902 (AG   LS   PE)
  
• The Great Reversal in the Demand for Skill and Cognitive Tasks
  Paul Beaudry, David A. Green, and Benjamin M. Sand #18901 (EFG   LS)
  
• Rethinking Elderly Poverty: Time for a Health Inclusive Poverty Measure?
  Sanders Korenman and Dahlia Remler #18900 (AG   HC   HE   PE)
  
• Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Euro Zone
  Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, Luis Garicano, and Tano Santos #18899 (EFG)
  
• Leakage, Welfare, and Cost-Effectiveness of Carbon Policy
  Kathy Baylis, Don Fullerton, and Daniel H. Karney #18898 (vEEE   PE)
  

---

Weekly papers, released by March 18, 2013

• Can a Unilateral Carbon Tax Reduce Emissions Elsewhere?
  Joshua Elliott and Don Fullerton #18897 (EEE   PE)
  
• Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization
  Arnaud Costinot and Andrés Rodríguez-Clare #18896 (ITI)
  
• Does “Skin in the Game” Reduce Risk Taking? Leverage, Liability and the Long-Run Consequences of New Deal Banking Reforms
  Kris James Mitchener and Gary Richardson #18895 (DAE   ME)
  
• Can Amputation Save the Hospital? The Impact of the Medicare Rural Flexibility Program on Demand and Welfare
  Gautam Gowrisankaran, Claudio Lucarelli, Philip Schmidt-Dengler, and Robert Town #18894 (HC   IO)
  
• Boy-Girl Differences in Parental Time Investments: Evidence from Three Countries
  Michael Baker and Kevin Milligan #18893 (CH)
  
• Credit Lines as Monitored Liquidity Insurance: Theory and Evidence
  Viral V. Acharya, Heitor Almeida, Filippo Ippolito, and Ander Perez #18892 (CF)
  
• Seeking Alpha: Excess Risk Taking and Competition for Managerial Talent
  Viral V. Acharya, Marco Pagano, and Paolo Volpin #18891 (CF)
  
• How Much do Bank Shocks Affect Investment? Evidence from Matched Bank-Firm Loan Data
  Mary Amiti and David E. Weinstein #18890 (CF   EFG   ME)
  
• The Impact of Chicago’s Small High School Initiative
  Lisa Barrow, Amy Claessens, and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach #18889 (CH   ED   PE)
  
• Shifting Mandates: The Federal Reserve’s First Centennial
  Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff #18888 (IFM   ME)
  
• Effects of Welfare Reform on Women’s Crime
  Hope Corman, Dhaval M. Dave, and Nancy E. Reichman #18887 (CH   HC   HE   LE   LS)
  
• Smokescreen: How Managers Behave When They Have Something To Hide
  Tanja Artiga González, Markus Schmid, and David Yermack #18886 (CF   LE)
  
• Migration and Wage Effects of Taxing Top Earners: Evidence from the Foreigners' Tax Scheme in Denmark
  Henrik Jacobsen Kleven, Camille Landais, Emmanuel Saez, and Esben Anton Schultz #18885 (LS   PE)
  
• The Impact of City Contracting Set-Asides on Black Self-Employment and Employment
  Aaron K. Chatterji, Kenneth Y. Chay, and Robert W. Fairlie #18884 (LS)
  
• Trickle-Down Consumption
  Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse #18883 (EFG   ME   POL)
  
• Learning about CEO Ability and Stock Return Volatility
  Yihui Pan, Tracy Yue Wang, and Michael S. Weisbach #18882 (vAP   CF   LS)
  

---

Weekly papers, released by March 11, 2013

• Advertising and Competition in Privatized Social Security: The Case of Mexico
  Justine S. Hastings, Ali Hortaçsu, and Chad Syverson #18881 (AG   IO   PE)
  
• Unemloyment and Unobserved Credit Risk in the FHA Single Family Mortgage Insurance Fund
  Joseph Gyourko and Joseph Tracy #18880 (PE)
  
• Why do emerging markets liberalize capital outflow controls? Fiscal versus net capital flow concerns
  Joshua Aizenman and Gurnain Kaur Pasricha #18879 (IFM)
  
• Uncertainty and Sentiment-Driven Equilibria
  Jess Benhabib, Pengfei Wang, and Yi Wen #18878 (EFG)
  
• Fiscal Limits and Monetary Policy
  Eric M. Leeper #18877 (EFG)
  
• Something in the Water: Contaminated Drinking Water and Infant Health
  Janet Currie, Joshua S. Graff Zivin, Katherine Meckel, Matthew J. Neidell, and Wolfram Schlenker #18876 (CH   EEE   HE)
  
• Mergers When Prices are Negotiated: Evidence from the Hospital Industry
  Gautam Gowrisankaran, Aviv Nevo, and Robert Town #18875 (HC   IO)
  
• From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run
  David S. Jacks #18874 (DAE)
  
• Biofuels, Binding Constraints and Agricultural Commodity Price Volatility
  Philip Abbott #18873 (EEE   ITI)
  
• Incentivizing China's Urban Mayors to Mitigate Pollution Externalities: The Role of the Central Government and Public Environmentalism
  Siqi Zheng, Matthew E. Kahn, Weizeng Sun, and Danglun Luo #18872 (EEE   PE   POL)
  
• Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment
  Nicholas Bloom, James Liang, John Roberts, and Zhichun Jenny Ying #18871 (LS   PE   PR)
  
• Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction
  Ulrich Mueller and Mark W. Watson #18870 (AP   EFG   ME)
  
• Disability, Earnings, Income and Consumption
  Bruce D. Meyer and Wallace K.C. Mok #18869 (AG   HC   HE   LS   PE)
  
• House Prices, Collateral and Self-Employment
  Manuel Adelino, Antoinette Schoar, and Felipe Severino #18868 (CF   EFG   LS)
  
• Financial Development and the Choice of Trade Partners
  Man Lung Chan and Kalina Manova #18867 (DEV   IFM   ITI)
  
• On Returns Differentials
  Stephanie E. Curcuru, Charles P. Thomas, and Francis E. Warnock #18866 (IFM)
  
• How Elastic Are Preferences for Redistribution? Evidence from Randomized Survey Experiments
  Ilyana Kuziemko, Michael I. Norton, Emmanuel Saez, and Stefanie Stantcheva #18865 (PE   POL)
  
• Speculative Runs on Interest Rate Pegs
  Marco Bassetto and Christopher Phelan #18864 (EFG   ME)
  
• The Effect of Deceptive Advertising on Consumption of the Advertised Good and its Substitutes: The Case of Over-the-Counter Weight Loss Products
  John Cawley, Rosemary Avery, and Matthew Eisenberg #18863 (HC   HE   IO   LE   PE)
  
• When Is Prevention More Profitable than Cure? The Impact of Time-Varying Consumer Heterogeneity
  Michael Kremer and Christopher M. Snyder #18862 (EFG   HC)
  
• What do we Really Know about Food Security?
  Carlo Cafiero #18861 (vDEV)
  

---

Weekly papers, released by March 4, 2013

• Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence From The Stock Market
  Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber #18860 (AP   EFG   ME)
  
• What Are We Weighting For?
  Gary Solon, Steven J. Haider, and Jeffrey Wooldridge #18859 (CH   DEV   ED   HC   HE   LS   PE   TWP)
  
• Physical Activity and Health
  Gregory J. Colman and Dhaval M. Dave #18858 (HE)
  
• Banks Exposure to Interest Rate Risk and The Transmission of Monetary Policy
  Augustin Landier, David Sraer, and David Thesmar #18857 (CF   ME)
  
• Aging and Pension Reform: Extending the Retirement Age and Human Capital Formation
  Edgar Vogel, Alexander Ludwig, and Axel Börsch-Supan #18856 (AG)
  
• Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default
  Michael Tomz and Mark L. J. Wright #18855 (EFG   IFM)
  
• Patent Rights, Product Market Reforms, and Innovation
  Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt, and Susanne Prantl #18854 (EFG   PR)
  
• How do Hospitals Respond to Negative Financial Shocks? The Impact of the 2008 Stock Market Crash
  David Dranove, Craig Garthwaite, and Christopher Ody #18853 (HC   HE   IO   PE)
  
• The 1920s American Real Estate Boom and the Downturn of the Great Depression: Evidence from City Cross Sections
  Michael Brocker and Christopher Hanes #18852 (DAE)
  
• Domestic Institutions as a Source of Comparative Advantage.
  Nathan Nunn and Daniel Trefler #18851 (DAE   ITI   POL)
  
• A Dynamic Model of Subprime Mortgage Default: Estimation and Policy Implications
  Patrick Bajari, Chenghuan Sean Chu, Denis Nekipelov, and Minjung Park #18850 (IO)
  
• The Welfare Impact of Indirect Pigouvian Taxation: Evidence from Transportation
  Christopher R. Knittel and Ryan Sandler #18849 (EEE   IO   PE)
  
• Does Sorting Students Improve Scores? An Analysis of Class Composition
  Courtney A. Collins and Li Gan #18848 (ED)
  
• Group Lending with Heterogeneous Types
  Li Gan, Manuel A. Hernandez, and Yanyan Liu #18847 (DEV)
  
• The Effects of Poor Neonatal Health on Children's Cognitive Development
  David N. Figlio, Jonathan Guryan, Krzysztof Karbownik, and Jeffrey Roth #18846 (CH   ED   LS)
  
• 'Those Who Know Most': Insider Trading in 18th c. Amsterdam
  Peter Koudijs #18845 (AP)
  
• Conditional Risk Premia in Currency Markets and Other Asset Classes
  Martin Lettau, Matteo Maggiori, and Michael Weber #18844 (AP   IFM)
  
• Asset Quality Misrepresentation by Financial Intermediaries: Evidence from RMBS Market
  Tomasz Piskorski, Amit Seru, and James Witkin #18843 (   AP   CF   LE)
  
• Incomplete Contracts and the Internal Organization of Firms
  Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, and John Van Reenen #18842 (IO   LS   PR)
  
• Firm Size Distortions and the Productivity Distribution: Evidence from France
  Luis Garicano, Claire LeLarge, and John Van Reenen #18841 (IO   LS)
  
• Do Acquisitions Relieve Target Firms' Financial Constraints?
  Isil Erel, Yeejin Jang, and Michael S. Weisbach #18840 (CF)
  
• Nation Building
  Alberto Alesina and Bryony Reich #18839 (POL)
  
• Bounding the Effects of Social Experiments: Accounting for Attrition in Administrative Data
  Jeffrey Grogger #18838 (LS)
  
• Fire-sale FDI or Business as Usual?
  Ron Alquist, Rahul Mukherjee, and Linda Tesar #18837 (IFM)
  
• Growth Options and Firm Valuation
  Holger Kraft, Eduardo S. Schwartz, and Farina Weiss #18836 (AP)
  
• Heterogeneous Economic Returns to Postsecondary Degrees: Evidence from Chile
  Loreto Reyes, Jorge Rodríguez, and Sergio S. Urzúa #18817 (ED   LS)
  

---

Weekly papers, released by February 25, 2013

• Generalized Social Marginal Welfare Weights for Optimal Tax Theory
  Emmanuel Saez and Stefanie Stantcheva #18835 (PE)
  
• Lawyers as Agents of the Devil in a Prisoner's Dilemma Game: Evidence from Long Run Play
  Orley C. Ashenfelter, David E. Bloom, and Gordon B. Dahl #18834 (LE   LS)
  
• Estimating the Impact of Means-tested Subsidies under Treatment Externalities with Application to Anti-Malarial Bednets
  Debopam Bhattacharya, Pascaline Dupas, and Shin Kanaya #18833 (CH   DEV   TWP)
  
• Career Progression, Economic Downturns, and Skills
  Jerome Adda, Christian Dustmann, Costas Meghir, and Jean-Marc Robin #18832 (ED   LS)
  
• The boats that did not sail: Asset Price Volatility and Market Efficiency in a Natural Experiment
  Peter Koudijs #18831 (AP)
  
• Effects of Pharmaceutical Promotion: A Review and Assessment
  Dhaval M. Dave #18830 (HC   HE   IO)
  
• International Prices and Exchange Rates
  Ariel Burstein and Gita Gopinath #18829 (EFG   IFM   ITI   ME)
  
• Not Just the Great Contraction: Friedman and Schwartz’s A Monetary History of the United States 1867 to 1960
  Michael D. Bordo and Hugh Rockoff #18828 (DAE   ME)
  
• Immigrant Group Size and Political Mobilization: Evidence from the European Migration
  Allison Shertzer #18827 (DAE   POL)
  
• A Theory of Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand as Functions of Market Tightness with Prices as Parameters
  Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez #18826 (EFG   ME)
  
• A Nation Of Gamblers: Real Estate Speculation And American History
  Edward L. Glaeser #18825 (EFG)
  
• What Do We Learn From Schumpeterian Growth Theory?
  Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, and Peter Howitt #18824 (EFG   PR)
  
• The Impact of Cartelization, Money, and Productivity Shocks on the International Great Depression
  Harold L. Cole and Lee E. Ohanian #18823 (DAE   EFG)
  
• In the Name of the Son (and the Daughter): Intergenerational Mobility in the United States, 1850-1930
  Claudia Olivetti and M. Daniele Paserman #18822 (DAE   LS)
  
• Did Housing Policies Cause the Postwar Boom in Homeownership?
  Matthew Chambers, Carlos Garriga, and Donald E. Schlagenhauf #18821 (DAE   EFG)
  
• Estimating the Effect of Salience in Wholesale and Retail Car Markets
  Meghan R. Busse, Nicola Lacetera, Devin G. Pope, Jorge Silva-Risso, and Justin R. Sydnor #18820 (IO   PR   LS)
  
• Market Potential and the Rise of US Productivity Leadership
  Dan Liu and Christopher M. Meissner #18819 (DAE)
  
• Home Computers and Child Outcomes: Short-Term Impacts from a Randomized Experiment in Peru
  Diether W. Beuermann, Julian P. Cristia, Yyannu Cruz-Aguayo, Santiago Cueto, and Ofer Malamud #18818 (ED)
  

---

Weekly papers, released by February 18, 2013

• Fluctuations in Weekly Hours and Total Hours Worked Over the Past 90 Years and the Importance of Changes in Federal Policy Toward Job Sharing
  Todd Neumann, Jason Taylor, and Price Fishback #18816 (DAE)
  
• The Effect of Police on Crime: New Evidence from U.S. Cities, 1960-2010
  Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary #18815 (LE   LS)
  
• Capital Flows, Credit Booms, and Financial Crises in the Classical Gold Standard Era
  Christopher M. Meissner #18814 (DAE)
  
• Married to Intolerance: Attitudes towards Intermarriage in Germany, 1900-2006
  Nico Voigtländer and Hans-Joachim Voth #18813 (DAE   POL)
  
• Estimating Benefits from University-Level Diversity
  Barbara L. Wolfe and Jason Fletcher #18812 (ED   LS   PE)
  
• Understanding Long-run Price Dispersion
  Mario J. Crucini and Hakan Yilmazkuday #18811 (IFM   ITI)
  
• Do Parental Involvement Laws Deter Risky Teen Sex?
  Silvie Colman, Thomas S. Dee, and Theodore J. Joyce #18810 (HE)
  
• Choice of Country by the Foreign Born for PhD and Postdoctoral Study: A Sixteen-Country Perspective
  Paula Stephan, Chiara Franzoni, and Giuseppe Scellato #18809 (ED   LS   PR)
  
• The Link Between Fundamentals and Proximate Factors in Development
  Wolfgang Keller and Carol H. Shiue #18808 (   EFG   ITI)
  
• Gravity, Scale and Exchange Rates
  James E. Anderson, Mykyta Vesselovsky, and Yoto V. Yotov #18807 (IFM   ITI)
  
• Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles
  Jordi Galí #18806 (EFG   ME)
  
• The Demand for Cigarettes as Derived from the Demand for Weight Control
  John Cawley and Stephanie von Hinke Kessler Scholder #18805 (CH   HC   HE)
  
• Information and Quality when Motivation is Intrinsic: Evidence from Surgeon Report Cards
  Jonathan T. Kolstad #18804 (HC   IO   PE)
  
• An Economic Analysis of Black-White Disparities in NYPD's Stop and Frisk Program
  Decio Coviello and Nicola Persico #18803 (LE)
  
• Distinctively Black Names in the American Past
  Lisa D. Cook, Trevon D. Logan, and John M. Parman #18802 (DAE)
  
• Market-based Emissions Regulation When Damages Vary Across Sources: What Are the Gains from Differentiation?
  Meredith Fowlie and Nicholas Muller #18801 (EEE)
  
• Optimal Public Debt Management and Liquidity Provision
  George-Marios Angeletos, Fabrice Collard, Harris Dellas, and Behzad Diba #18800 (EFG   ME)
  
• University Differences in the Graduation of Minorities in STEM Fields: Evidence from California
  Peter Arcidiacono, Esteban M. Aucejo, and V. Joseph Hotz #18799 (ED)
  
• Does Elite Capture Matter? Local Elites and Targeted Welfare Programs in Indonesia
  Vivi Alatas, Abhijit Banerjee, Rema Hanna, Benjamin A. Olken, Ririn Purnamasari, and Matthew Wai-Poi #18798 (PE   POL   DEV)
  

---

Weekly papers, released by February 11, 2013

• Fiscal Stability of High-Debt Nations under Volatile Economic Conditions
  Robert E. Hall #18797 (EFG)
  
• The Interwar Housing Cycle in the Light of 2001-2011: A Comparative Historical Approach
  Alexander J. Field #18796 (DAE)
  
• Behind the Scenes: Sources of Complementarity in R&D
  Marco Ceccagnoli, Matthew J. Higgins, and Vincenzo Palermo #18795 (IO   PR)
  
• Environmental Macroeconomics: Environmental Policy, Business Cycles, and Directed Technical Change
  Garth Heutel and Carolyn Fischer #18794 (EEE   EFG)
  
• Limited Partner Performance and the Maturing of the Private Equity Industry
  Berk A. Sensoy, Yingdi Wang, and Michael S. Weisbach #18793 (CF)
  
• Estate Taxation with Altruism Heterogeneity
  Emmanuel Farhi and Iván Werning #18792 (EFG   PE)
  
• Birthdays, Schooling, and Crime: New Evidence on the Dropout-Crime Nexus
  Philip J. Cook and Songman Kang #18791 (ED)
  
• Theoretical Models of Inequality Transmission across Multiple Generations
  Gary Solon #18790 (CH   DAE   LS)
  
• National Banking's Role in U.S. Industrialization, 1850-1900
  Matthew S. Jaremski #18789 (DAE)
  
• Heterogeneous Workers and International Trade
  Gene M. Grossman #18788 (ITI)
  
• Aggregating Local Preferences to Guide Marginal Policy Adjustments
  Daniel J. Benjamin, Ori Heffetz, Miles S. Kimball, and Nichole Szembrot #18787 (AG   PE)
  
• The Impact of Social Networks on Labour Market Outcomes: New Evidence from Cape Breton
  Adnan Q. Khan and Steven F. Lehrer #18786 (LS)
  
• New Evidence on the Impacts of Access to and Attending Universal Childcare in Canada
  Michael J. Kottelenberg and Steven F. Lehrer #18785 (CH   PE)
  
• Untangling Searchable and Experiential Quality Responses to Counterfeits
  Yi Qian, Qiang Gong, and Yuxin Chen #18784 (PR)
  
• The Antitrust Analysis of Multi-Sided Platform Businesses
  David S. Evans and Richard Schmalensee #18783 (IO)
  
• Education Policy and Intergenerational Transfers in Equilibrium
  Brant Abbott, Giovanni Gallipoli, Costas Meghir, and Giovanni L. Violante #18782 (ED   EFG   LS)
  
• Commercial Building Electricity Consumption Dynamics: The Role of Structure Quality, Human Capital, and Contract Incentives
  Matthew E. Kahn, Nils Kok, and John M. Quigley #18781 (EEE)
  
• Attracting Talent: Location Choices of Foreign-Born PhDs in the US
  Jeffrey Grogger and Gordon H. Hanson #18780 (LS)
  
• Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
  Olivier J. Blanchard and Daniel Leigh #18779 (EFG   PE)
  
• Profitability of Fertilizer: Experimental Evidence from Female Rice Farmers in Mali
  Lori A. Beaman, Dean Karlan, Bram Thuysbaert, and Christopher R. Udry #18778 (LS)
  
• Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations
  Greg Kaplan and Guido Menzio #18777 (EFG)
  
• Effectiveness and Spillovers of Online Sex Education: Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation in Colombian Public Schools
  Alberto Chong, Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, Dean Karlan, and Martin Valdivia #18776 (   HE   LS)
  
• Multinational Firms and the Structure of International Trade
  Pol Antràs and Stephen R.Yeaple #18775 (IFM   ITI)
  
• A Production-Based Model for the Term Structure
  Urban Jermann #18774 (AP   EFG)
  
• Effects of Bicycle Helmet Laws on Children's Injuries
  Pinka Chatterji and Sara Markowitz #18773 (CH   HE   LE)
  
• Long-Term Neighborhood Effects on Low-Income Families: Evidence from Moving to Opportunity
  Jens Ludwig, Greg J. Duncan, Lisa A. Gennetian, Lawrence F. Katz, Ronald C. Kessler, Jeffrey R. Kling, and Lisa Sanbonmatsu #18772 (CH   HE   LS   PE)
  
• The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China
  Alan M. Taylor #18771 (IFM)
  
• Modest, Secure and Informed: Successful Development in Conflict Zones
  Eli Berman, Joseph Felter, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Erin Troland #18674 (PE   POL)
  

---

Weekly papers released by February 4, 2013

• Political Centralization in Pre-Colonial Africa
  Philip Osafo-Kwaako, and James A. Robinson #18770 (DAE)
  
• Are Government Spending Multipliers Greater During Periods of Slack? Evidence from 20th Century Historical Data
  Michael T. Owyang, Valerie A. Ramey, and Sarah Zubairy #18769 (EFG)
  
• A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory
  John H. Cochrane #18768 (AP)
  
• Evaluating Durable Public Good Provision using Housing Prices
  Stephen Coate #18767 (PE   POL)
  
• Uncertainty as Commitment
  Jaromir Nosal and Guillermo Ordoñez #18766 (CF   EFG   ME)
  
• Climatic Fluctuations and the Diffusion of Agriculture
  Quamrul Ashraf and Stelios Michalopoulos #18765 (EFG   POL)
  
• It Pays to Set the Menu: Mutual Fund Investment Options in 401(k) Plans
  Veronika K. Pool, Clemens Sialm, and Irina Stefanescu #18764 (AG   AP   CF   PE)
  
• Do Labor Market Networks Have An Important Spatial Dimension?
  Judith K. Hellerstein, Mark J. Kutzbach, and David Neumark #18763 (LS)
  
• Is There Evidence of a Real Estate Collateral Channel Effect on Listed Firm Investment in China?
  Jing Wu, Joseph Gyourko, and Yongheng Deng #18762 (CF   ME   PE)
  
• Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment
  Peter A. Diamond #18761 (EFG   LS   ME)
  
• On Financing Retirement with an Aging Population
  Ellen R. McGrattan and Edward C. Prescott #18760 (EFG   PE)
  
• Gold Returns
  Robert J. Barro and Sanjay Misra #18759 (AP   EFG   ME   PE)
  
• Place Based Policies with Unemployment
  Patrick Kline and Enrico Moretti #18758 (LS   PE)
  
• Subways, Strikes, and Slowdowns: The Impacts of Public Transit on Traffic Congestion
  Michael L. Anderson #18757 (EEE   PE)
  
• The Value of Climate Amenities: Evidence from US Migration Decisions
  Paramita Sinha and Maureen L. Cropper #18756 (EEE)
  
• Empirical Determinants of Intertemporal Choice
  Jeffrey R. Brown, Zoran Ivković, and Scott Weisbenner #18755 (AG   PE)
  
• Incentives and Outcomes: China's Environmental Policy
  Jing Wu, Yongheng Deng, Jun Huang, Randall Morck, and Bernard Yeung #18754 (CF   EEE)
  
• Distribution Capital and the Short- and Long-Run Import Demand Elasticity
  Mario J. Crucini and J. Scott Davis #18753 (IFM   ITI)
  
• Technical Change and the Relative Demand for Skilled Labor: The United States in Historical Perspective
  Lawrence F. Katz and Robert A. Margo #18752 (DAE   LS)
  
• Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?
  Kathryn M.E. Dominguez and Matthew D. Shapiro #18751 (EFG   IFM   ME)
  
• Do Prices and Attributes Explain International Differences in Food Purchases?
  Pierre Dubois, Rachel Griffith, and Aviv Nevo #18750 (AG   HE   IO)
  
• Does Federal Financial Aid Affect College Enrollment? Evidence from Drug Offenders and the Higher Education Act of 1998
  Michael F. Lovenheim and Emily G. Owens #18749 (ED   PE)
  
• The Importance of Being Marginal: Gender Differences in Generosity
  Stefano DellaVigna, John A. List, Ulrike Malmendier, and Gautam Rao #18748 (LS   PE)
  
• Incentive Effects of Inheritances and Optimal Estate Taxation
  Wojciech Kopczuk #18747 (EFG   PE)
  

---

Weekly papers: released by January 28, 2013

• The Missing Transmission Mechanism in the Monetary Explanation of the Great Depression
  Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer #18746 (DAE   EFG   ME)
  
• College as Country Club: Do Colleges Cater to Students’ Preferences for Consumption?
  Brian Jacob, Brian McCall, and Kevin M. Stange #18745 (CH   ED   LS)
  
• The Long Run Effects of High-School Class Gender Composition
  Massimo Anelli and Giovanni Peri #18744 (ED   LS)
  
• Ambiguity Attitudes and Economic Behavior
  Stephen G. Dimmock, Roy Kouwenberg, Olivia S. Mitchell, and Kim Peijnenburg #18743 (AG   LS)
  
• Poverty and Self-Control
  B. Douglas Bernheim, Debraj Ray, and Sevin Yeltekin #18742 (DEV   PE)
  
• Measuring Sovereign Contagion in Europe
  Massimiliano Caporin, Loriana Pelizzon, Francesco Ravazzolo, and Roberto Rigobon #18741 (IFM)
  
• Payment for Environmental Services: Hypotheses and Evidence
  Lee J. Alston, Krister Andersson, and Steven M. Smith #18740 (DEV   EEE   POL)
  
• Reallocation and Technology: Evidence from the U.S. Steel Industry
  Allan Collard-Wexler and Jan De Loecker #18739 (IO   PR)
  
• Genetic Diversity and the Origins of Cultural Fragmentation
  Quamrul Ashraf and Oded Galor #18738 (DEV   EFG   POL)
  
• A Model of the Safe Asset Mechanism (SAM): Safety Traps and Economic Policy
  Ricardo J. Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi #18737 (EFG   IFM   ME)
  
• Air Pollution and Infant Mortality: Evidence from the Expansion of Natural Gas Infrastructure
  Resul Cesur, Erdal Tekin, and Aydogan Ulker #18736 (CH   DEV   EEE   HE)
  
• The Rise of the Low Carbon Consumer City
  Matthew J. Holian and Matthew E. Kahn #18735 (EEE   PE)
  
• Working Over Time: Dynamic Inconsistency in Real Effort Tasks
  Ned Augenblick, Muriel Niederle, and Charles Sprenger #18734 (LS)
  
• Bank Regulation and Supervision in 180 Countries from 1999 to 2011
  James R. Barth, Gerard Caprio, Jr., and Ross Levine #18733 (CF   DEV   IFM   ITI)
  
• The Supply and Demand for Safe Assets
  Gary B. Gorton and Guillermo Ordoñez #18732 (AP   CF   EFG   ME)
  
• Alcohol Consumption, Deterrence and Crime in New York City
  Hope Corman and Naci H. Mocan #18731 (HE   LE   LS   PE)
  
• The Mystique Surrounding the Central Bank's Balance Sheet, Applied to the European Crisis
  Ricardo Reis #18730 (EFG   IFM   ME)
  
• Gaming in Air Pollution Data? Lessons from China
  Yuyu Chen, Ginger Zhe Jin, Naresh Kumar, and Guang Shi #18729 (   IO)
  
• Views among Economists: Professional Consensus or Point-Counterpoint?
  Roger Gordon and Gordon B. Dahl #18728 (LS   PE   POL)
  
• Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks
  Daron Acemoglu, Asuman Ozdaglar, and Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi #18727 (CF   DEV   EFG   IFM)
  
• Hot Tip: Nominal Exchange Rates and Inflation Indexed Bond Yields
  Richard H. Clarida #18726 (IFM)
  
• Which News Moves Stock Prices? A Textual Analysis
  Jacob Boudoukh, Ronen Feldman, Shimon Kogan, and Matthew Richardson #18725 (AP)
  

---

Weekly papers: released by January 21, 2013

• Measuring Margin
  Robert L. McDonald #18724 (AP)
  
• Learning from Customers: Individual and Organizational Effects in Outsourced Radiological Services
  Jonathan R. Clark, Robert S. Huckman, and Bradley R. Staats #18723 (HC   LS   PR)
  
• The Transmission of Democracy: From the Village to the Nation-State
  Paola Giuliano and Nathan Nunn #18722 (POL)
  
• Tracing the Effects of Guaranteed Admission through the College Process: Evidence from a Policy Discontinuity in the Texas 10% Plan
  Jason Fletcher and Adalbert Mayer #18721 (ED)
  
• Does Information Help or Hinder Job Applicants from Less Developed Countries in Online Markets?
  Ajay K. Agrawal, Nicola Lacetera, and Elizabeth Lyons #18720 (DEV   PR)
  
• Mismatch, Sorting and Wage Dynamics
  Jeremy Lise, Costas Meghir, and Jean-Marc Robin #18719 (LS   PE)
  
• Winning the War: Poverty from the Great Society to the Great Recession
  Bruce D. Meyer and James X. Sullivan #18718 (AG   CH   DAE   EFG   LS   PE)
  
• Birthing a Nation: The Effect of Fertility Control Access on the 19th Century Demographic Transition
  Joanna Lahey #18717 (AG   CH   DAE)
  
• International Monetary Coordination and the Great Deviation
  John B. Taylor #18716 (   LS   TWP   IFM)
  
• Task Specialization in U.S. Cities from 1880-2000
  Guy Michaels, Ferdinand Rauch, and Stephen J. Redding #18715 (ITI)
  
• Solving Dynamic Programming Problems on a Computational Grid
  Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L. Judd, Greg Thain, and Stephen J. Wright #18714 (TWP)
  
• These Are the Good Old Days: Foreign Entry and the Mexican Banking System
  Stephen H. Haber and Aldo Musacchio #18713 (DAE)
  
• Competition Among the Exchanges before the SEC: Was the NYSE a Natural Hegemon?
  Eugene N. White #18712 (DAE)
  
• The "Task Approach" to Labor Markets: An Overview
  David H. Autor #18711 (LS)
  
• Financial Aid Policy: Lessons from Research
  Susan Dynarski and Judith Scott-Clayton #18710 (ED)
  
• Numerical Solution of Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs
  Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L. Judd, and Rong Xu #18709 (TWP)
  
• Salience and Asset Prices
  Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer #18708 (AP)
  
• Simplifying Tax Incentives and Aid for College: Progress and Prospects
  Susan Dynarski, Judith Scott-Clayton, and Mark Wiederspan #18707 (ED)
  
• The Golden Dilemma
  Claude B. Erb and Campbell R. Harvey #18706 (AP   IFM)
  
• Price Rigidity: Microeconomic Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications
  Emi Nakamura and Jón Steinsson #18705 (EFG   IFM   ME)
  
• The Social Cost of Stochastic and Irreversible Climate Change
  Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L. Judd, and Thomas S. Lontzek #18704 (EEE)
  

---

Weekly papers: released by January 14, 2013

• Uncertainty and Trade Agreements
  Nuno Limão and Giovanni Maggi #18703 (ITI   POL)
  
• Female Labor Supply: Why is the US Falling Behind?
  Francine D. Blau and Lawrence M. Kahn #18702 (LS)
  
• U.S High School Graduation Rates: Patterns and Explanations
  Richard J. Murnane #18701 (CH   ED   LS)
  
• Do Housing Prices Reflect Environmental Health Risks? Evidence from More than 1600 Toxic Plant Openings and Closings
  Janet Currie, Lucas Davis, Michael Greenstone, and Reed Walker #18700 (CH   EEE   HC   HE   LS   PE)
  
• Birthplace Diversity and Economic Prosperity
  Alberto Alesina, Johann Harnoss, and Hillel Rapoport #18699 (POL)
  
• Equilibrium Labor Market Search and Health Insurance Reform
  Naoki Aizawa and Hanming Fang #18698 (HC   HE   LS   PE)
  
• History, Gravity and International Finance
  Livia Chițu, Barry Eichengreen, and Arnaud J. Mehl #18697 (DAE   IFM)
  
• Are Immigrants the Best and Brightest U.S. Engineers?
  Jennifer Hunt #18696 (LS)
  
• Health, Education, and the Post-Retirement Evolution of Household Assets
  James M. Poterba, Steven F. Venti, and David A. Wise #18695 (AG   HC)
  
• Industrial Policy and Downstream Export Performance
  Bruce Blonigen #18694 (DEV   ITI)
  
• The Allocation of Talent and U.S. Economic Growth
  Chang-Tai Hsieh, Erik Hurst, Charles I. Jones, and Peter J. Klenow #18693 (EFG   LS)
  
• Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the U.S. Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the 20th Century
  Alan Barreca, Karen Clay, Olivier Deschenes, Michael Greenstone, and Joseph S. Shapiro #18692 (CH   DAE   EEE   HC   HE   LS   PE)
  
• Chiefs: Elite Control of Civil Society and Economic Development in Sierra Leone
  Daron Acemoglu, Tristan Reed, and James A. Robinson #18691 (DEV   POL)
  
• Comparing the Happiness Effects of Real and On-line Friends
  John F. Helliwell and Haifang Huang #18690 (LS   PE)
  
• The Effects of Childhood ADHD on Adult Labor Market Outcomes
  Jason Fletcher #18689 (CH   HE   LS)
  
• Leverage Restrictions in a Business Cycle Model
  Lawrence Christiano and Daisuke Ikeda #18688 (EFG)
  
• The New Science of Pleasure
  Daniel L. McFadden #18687 (AG   PE)
  
• Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns
  Robin Greenwood and Andrei Shleifer #18686 (AP   CF)
  
• The Energy-Policy Efficiency Gap: Was There Ever Support for Gasoline Taxes?
  Christopher R. Knittel #18685 (EEE   IO   POL)
  
• Health Information Technology and Patient Outcomes: The Role of Organizational and Informational Complementarities
  Jeffery S. McCullough, Stephen Parente, and Robert Town #18684 (HC   IO)
  
• Africa's (Dis)advantage: the Curse of Party Monopoly
  Ann E. Harrison, Justin Yifu Lin, and L. Colin Xu #18683 (EEE   ITI)
  
• Risk Shocks
  Lawrence Christiano, Roberto Motto, and Massimo Rostagno #18682 (EFG)
  
• Revisiting the Minimum Wage-Employment Debate: Throwing Out the Baby with the Bathwater?
  David Neumark, J.M. Ian Salas, and William Wascher #18681 (LS   PE)
  
• Shocking Labor Supply: A Reassessment of the Role of World War II on U.S. Women’s Labor Supply
  Claudia Goldin and Claudia Olivetti #18676 (DAE   LS)
  
• Wealth Effects Revisited: 1975-2012
  Karl E. Case, John M. Quigley, and Robert J. Shiller #18667 (AP   EFG)
  

---

Weekly papers: released by January 7, 2013

• Informed Trading and Expected Returns
  James J. Choi, Li Jin, and Hongjun Yan #18680 (AP)
  
• Son Preference, Sex Selection and Economic Development: The Case of South Korea
  Lena Edlund and Chulhee Lee #18679 (CH)
  
• The Production of and Market for New Physicians' Skill
  Andrew J. Epstein, Sean Nicholson, and David A. Asch #18678 (HC   LS)
  
• Financing Through Asset Sales
  Alex Edmans and William Mann #18677 (CF)
  
• Macroprudential Regulation Versus Mopping Up After the Crash
  Olivier Jeanne and Anton Korinek #18675 (CF   EFG   IFM)
  
• Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap
  Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, and Kwanho Shin #18673 (DAE   IFM)
  
• Coordination in the European Union
  Martin Feldstein #18672 (IFM   ITI)
  
• Technological Innovation: Winners and Losers
  Leonid Kogan, Dimitris Papanikolaou, and Noah Stoffman #18671 (AP   EFG)
  
• Review of Theories of Financial Crises
  Itay Goldstein and Assaf Razin #18670 (IFM)
  
• Optimal Financial Knowledge and Wealth Inequality
  Annamaria Lusardi, Pierre-Carl Michaud, and Olivia S. Mitchell #18669 (AG   EFG   PE)
  
• Okun's Law: Fit at Fifty?
  Laurence M. Ball, Daniel Leigh, and Prakash Loungani #18668 (EFG   ME)
  
• Search and Work in Optimal Welfare Programs
  Nicola Pavoni, Ofer Setty, and Giovanni L. Violante #18666 (EFG   LS)
  
• Nine Facts about Top Journals in Economics
  David Card and Stefano DellaVigna #18665 (AG   CF   CH   ED   IO   LE   LS   ME   PE   POL   EFG)
  
• The Developmental Approach to Child and Adult Health
  Gabriella Conti and James J. Heckman #18664 (CH   HE)
  
• Wanna Get Away? RD Identification Away from the Cutoff
  Joshua Angrist and Miikka Rokkanen #18662 (CH   ED   HE   LS   PE)
  

---

Search the NBER Working Paper database

Papers by JEL Class

Papers Cited in the Press

Select Non-Technical Summaries

If you have questions regarding publications on this list or would like to make a suggestion regarding this page, please e-mail our Publications Department at orders@nber.org.